The development of the situation in Russia after the uprising staged by Wagner mercenary company owner Yevgeny Prigozhin is unpredictable even though Russian President Vladimir Putin’s vertical of power has become more unstable, says Latvian politologist Kārlis Daukšts.
Last week Progozhin organised a military uprising, which was viewed by some as
an attempt to overthrow the power in Russia. But the whole thing ended without any major shocks,
as mercenaries left the cities they had taken, and the whole group was “exiled” to Belarus.
Daukšts said it is difficult to tell what exactly happened in Russia – was it an uprising, or some cleverly played theatre?
“Politologists are unable to predict how the situation in Russia could develop. This is a matter for psychiatrists, because there is no logic in the work done by officials there,” said the Latvian expert.
According to him, Russia is becoming more chaotic and Putin’s vertical of power shows more and more cracks. There are many different interests at work there – private, financial and geopolitical, although it is very difficult to say who was backing Prigozhin’s stunt.
Daukšts mentioned there are many versions, but none of them are confirmed. For example, one version suggests Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko was pulled into resolving the conflict following Putin’s request, and that the real objective was sending Prigozhin to Belarus as his agent. Belarusian military officials allegedly fear Prigozhin and are not as experienced as the heads of the Russian military.
There is also the version, according to which Lukashenko has been “feeding” Prigozhin for some time in order to secure his own geopolitical interests.
Generally it is clear both Putin and Prigozhin are fighting for their own survival while trying to preserve as many financial assets as possible. Putin has lost a part of his legitimacy, but whether or not Prigozhin will have completely lost Wagner Group it is too soon to say.
The expert mentioned that recently Prigozhin has offered Russian masses slogans like fighting against the rich and putting an end to the capture of state.
Daukšts mentioned that Putin’s vertical of power is not stable, which is indicated by a large number of private armies even governors now have. This, according to the expert, proves Putin’s concerns about Russia’s disintegration are justified.
Director of NATO Strategic Communications Centre of Excellence Jānis Sārts says Wagner Group’s organised military uprising, which passed without any major shocks, has made Putin’s regime weaker.
He wrote on social media that it is difficult to find a rational explanation to what happened, but it seems to him the uprising ended the way it did because Prigozhin’s allies in Moscow may have changed their positions, revoking support to Wagner forces in Moscow. Without aid in this enormous city, mercenaries would have no chance.
“At the same time, this solution makes Putin weaker. Secondly, it makes Prigozhin weaker as well,” said the expert.
“Some unknown third party comes out the winner. But we have yet to find out who this third party is. Perhaps this was an overture to events to come.”
Last Friday Prigozhin announced Wagner Group entered Russia from Ukraine on the way to Moscow to overthrow Russia’s military commanders. Mercenaries took over Rostov-on-Don and reached Voronezh and Lipetsk on their way to Moscow, prompting the capital city to start protection measures.
In the evening on Saturday, however, Prigozhin announced his mercenaries had stopped on their way to Moscow, and that they will turn around. Later the same day the governor of Rostov Vasily Golubev announced Wagner forces were returning to field camps outside Rostov-on-Don. Russian news agency RIA Novosti, referencing eyewitness reports, that Prigozhin had also left the headquarters of Russia’s Southern Military Region’s headquarters in Rostov-on-Don.
Kremlin allowed Prigozhin to move to Belarus. Wagner Group mercenaries will be relieved of criminal liability for the armed uprising, as confirmed by Russian President Vladimir Putin’s press-secretary Dmitry Peskov, adding that the Kremlin is not aware what Prigozhin will be doing in Belarus.
According to Peskov, some Wagner Group mercenaries that refused to participate in the uprising will sign contracts with Russian Ministry of Defence.
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