During one of Russia’s major attacks on western Ukraine in late July, Moscow’s missile entered Polish airspace and then fell on Polish territory, but Poland’s response was reserved.
Warsaw decided not to shoot down the missile while it was in Polish airspace, saying there was no immediate threat. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said the Poles were prepared to intercept the missile if it moved deeper into the country.
While experts understand the decision from a security perspective, they also warned that the lack of a decisive response to a violation of this magnitude sets a dangerous precedent. In their view, it shows that Russia can use NATO airspace for its own operations and maneuvers without facing consequences.
Aviation expert Bohdan Dolintse told LRT that statements about readiness to shoot down missiles if they move further do not solve the problem – during Russian strikes, the airspace borders of countries whose security is guaranteed by NATO are systematically violated.
Warsaw has confirmed that a Russian Kh-101 missile flew into eastern Poland and exploded there.
Fortunately, the missile fell in an uninhabited area and no one was injured. Dolintse said that this is an incident of unprecedented scale on NATO’s eastern flank.
Polish officials stressed that the target was not Polish territory. However, at least 12 more missiles that flew over western Ukraine that night are believed to have posed a threat to Polish airspace. The American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in its assessment of the incident that it appeared that Russian missiles and drones flying into NATO territory during targeted strikes on Ukraine was a risk that the Kremlin considered acceptable.
Piotr Woyke, director of the Brussels-based Eastern Flank Institute, said that politically the right response would have been to shoot down the missile, as the Russians only understand force.
The incident highlighted shortcomings in the multi-layered air defense system being built by Poland, and also showed that NATO’s decision-making process from spotting a target to authorizing its destruction is too slow to effectively deal with low-flying missiles.
Experts at the LRT said that NATO’s eastern flank should now focus on strengthening air defenses
by building a network of radars capable of detecting low-flying objects and ensuring real-time sharing of radar data between Ukraine and NATO. Mobile units should also be created to intercept drones and missiles. This would help reduce the need to use expensive surface-to-air missiles against relatively cheap drones.
Warsaw also confirmed that the pilot of a Ukrainian fighter jet tried to intercept a missile that night, but was forced to turn back so as not to violate Polish airspace. The restrictions are not just formal, as there would be a risk that Polish fighters would accidentally shoot down a Ukrainian plane.
The incident has raised questions about whether NATO should rethink its air defense architecture on its eastern flank, giving Ukraine a greater role than it currently plays. ISW suggested that
NATO should consider possible talks with Ukraine on air defense as part of self-defense against Russian drones
entering NATO airspace, regardless of whether Moscow violates the borders intentionally or accidentally.
Dolince said that intercepting missiles over Ukraine, preventing them from reaching NATO territory, would be a logical and practical step. Experts, however, stressed that such decisions should be made by the alliance together, and the main obstacle to this is the lack of a unified political position, which Moscow, in turn, uses to its advantage.
NATO recently announced that the Baltic airspace patrol mission will be transformed into an air defense mission. However, it is not yet clear what this will mean in practice, and whether the changes will also mean the authority to shoot down missiles that have entered NATO airspace.
Experts pointed out that any drone and missile in NATO airspace should be considered Russian tactics of reconnaissance by force. In this way, the Kremlin tests NATO’s reaction time, technical capabilities and political will. At the same time, the Kremlin is also pursuing a broader strategy, seeking to sow doubts about NATO’s ability to protect the alliance’s airspace and jeopardizing unity on the issue of further support for Ukraine. Wojke said that this makes a firm response an absolute necessity. He added that one should not show weakness in the face of provocations, as they will become increasingly aggressive.
Read the full article in English here: https://www.lrt.lt/en/news-in-english/19/3012179/russians-only-understand-force-did-poland-make-a-mistake
Read also: Polish Prime Minister: Missile that fell overnight was likely launched by Russia