The latest SKDS party ratings, published in early August, delivered one of the biggest political surprises ahead of Latvia’s parliamentary elections. Alongside the United List (12.2%), the alliance Sovereign Power/New Latvians has surged to 11.4%, followed closely by Latvia First (LPV) with 10%. What do these figures suggest about Latvia’s political landscape? BNN spoke with political analyst Filips Rajevskis, co-owner of the communications company Mediju tilts.
“Using the Sainte-Laguë method prescribed by Latvian electoral law, while taking into account constituency mandates and party support in each electoral district, I calculated how many parliamentary seats each political force would currently receive,” Rajevskis explained.
Why is Sovereign Power/New Latvians gaining support? According to Rajevskis, the alliance’s rise is far from unexpected. “We had already seen an upward trend in previous polls, and there are several reasons for it,” he said. First, the alliance has reunited after previously running separately. Sovereign Power and New Latvians contested the municipal elections together, later split apart, and have now joined forces again. “That creates a synergy effect, which already proved successful during previous elections.”
Second, Rajevskis argues that the alliance has capitalised on the weaknesses of traditional media by building its own social media ecosystem. “They actively promote themselves through an organic content strategy rather than relying solely on advertising, and the results speak for themselves.”
Third, they have successfully developed a Russian-language social media network, enabling them to communicate directly with Russian-speaking voters. “These three factors are working strongly in their favour. They have particularly strong communities on TikTok and Facebook, while also maintaining an active presence on Instagram and Telegram.
Much of their content is produced authentically in Russian.”
How does Latvia First compare? Asked whether Ainārs Šlesers’ Latvia First has achieved similar success through social media, Rajevskis agreed that the party has also built its own media ecosystem. However, he pointed to one key difference. Unlike Sovereign Power, Latvia First still appears interested in becoming part of a governing coalition. “That means Šlesers has to take clear positions on issues such as the war in Ukraine. Sovereign Power never directly answers questions such as who Crimea belongs to. Šlesers, on the other hand, openly states that Russia started the war. That is a major distinction.”
While both parties compete for Russian-speaking voters, Rajevskis believes Sovereign Power is more successful in attracting openly pro-Kremlin voters because it avoids condemning Russia and adopts considerably more radical positions on the war.
What has happened to New Unity? Although New Unity increased its support by one percentage point, it still polls at only 4.3%. According to Rajevskis, the party’s biggest challenge is that it no longer projects the image of being the dominant force in Latvian politics. “For years we described New Unity as the number one political force because mathematics supported that assessment—they controlled 25 parliamentary seats. That gave them enormous influence.”
Following the formation of Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs’ government, however, New Unity has increasingly resembled an ordinary coalition partner. “The question is whether they are unwilling or unable to demonstrate political leadership within the new coalition, or whether they have simply lost their political agenda and authenticity. They have become relatively quiet.” Kulbergs’ leadership, Rajevskis added, has also undermined New Unity’s previous campaign message portraying itself as “the only adults in the room.” “That narrative was originally developed in opposition to the New Conservative Party and KPV LV.
Today’s political environment is completely different, making it much harder to sustain.”
Could forming the next government become extremely difficult? BNN noted that, based on current polling, forming a governing coalition could prove highly complicated. It is difficult to imagine the National Alliance cooperating with The Progressives, while the Union of Greens and Farmers (ZZS) currently risks failing to enter Parliament altogether. Rajevskis agreed. “That is the major question—how votes and parliamentary seats will ultimately be distributed.”
One key issue will be whether New Unity continues to align itself with The Progressives, as it has in previous governments. “Previously, New Unity was clearly the senior partner and The Progressives the junior one. Based on today’s polling, the roles could easily be reversed. That would completely change the dynamics.”
Another major dilemma will face the National Alliance. “Would it prefer a coalition with The Progressives, or an alternative coalition involving Latvia First? That would be an extremely difficult political choice.” Rajevskis also outlined what he described as a more unconventional—but not impossible—scenario. A coalition between Latvia First, The Progressives and Sovereign Power/New Latvians? “Many people would immediately dismiss such an idea, but
it actually has a certain ideological foundation and should not be ruled out entirely.”
According to Rajevskis, attitudes toward Latvia’s Russian-speaking population could become one of the issues capable of bringing these otherwise very different political forces together. At the same time, he believes Sovereign Power/New Latvians could ultimately occupy the political space once held by the former Harmony party. “There is a very real possibility that they become a large parliamentary faction that nevertheless never joins the government.”
As for all the other parties, Rajevskis concluded that the central question remains under what circumstances each of them might eventually reach the coalition negotiating table. “At this stage, no scenario can be completely ruled out.”
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