The White House has announced that the agreement to extend the ceasefire between the US and Iran has been signed and entered into force, but many unclear issues remain, writes the BBC.
US President Donald Trump signed the agreement while attending a meeting of the G7 countries in France. The 14-point agreement, called a memorandum of understanding, also includes a condition that Iran agrees not to develop nuclear weapons and a commitment to provide Iran with 300 billion dollars in financial assistance for the country’s reconstruction and economic development, but it is not clear that the US will also participate in providing support. The conflict began after the US strikes on Israel on the 28th of February.
The Trump administration has described the agreement as performance-based, meaning that Iran will only receive what it promised if it fulfills its commitments.
The first item in the memorandum is that hostilities will cease on all fronts, including in Lebanon. The US has been concerned that Israeli military operations against the terrorist group Hezbollah could disrupt the agreement with Tehran, while Iran has repeatedly insisted that the ceasefire should also cover Lebanese territory. An Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman said on the 17th of June that any actions by the Israeli army in Lebanon would be considered a violation of the agreement, and that necessary retaliatory measures would be taken.
It is not yet known how Israel will react.
The text of the document, read to journalists by US officials, states that the US and Iran will respect each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and will refrain from interfering in the internal affairs of each other’s countries. This item is likely to cause discontent among dissident groups in Iran. Earlier this year, Trump publicly promised to help protesters when widespread anti-regime protests erupted in Iran.
According to the third paragraph of the document, the US and Iran undertake to continue negotiations and reach a final agreement within no more than 60 days. At the same time, the deadline can be extended by mutual agreement. The countdown has already begun. The presidents of both countries have already signed the memorandum, but it was previously promised that an official signing ceremony could take place in Geneva this week. It is currently unknown whether this will happen.
After signing the memorandum, the United States has pledged to begin lifting the naval blockade and to end any disruptions to the operation of Iranian ports. The blockade will be fully lifted within 30 days, and the number of ships that the United States will allow to pass through Iranian ports will be proportional to the number of ships that Iran will allow to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Within 30 days of signing the memorandum, the United States has pledged to withdraw its forces from the waters in the immediate vicinity of Iran.
In practice, this means that the Americans will return to the positions they had before the 28th of February.
The fifth point of the agreement stipulates that Iran will make every effort to ensure the safe passage of commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz, without charging fees for it. This has been a key American goal since the beginning of the war, as Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, which is almost the only route through which oil and natural gas extracted in the Persian Gulf region is exported. The document states that traffic will resume immediately, while taking into account the need to remove technical and military obstacles, including mine clearance operations. In the long term, the agreement provides that Iran will work with Oman and other Gulf states to agree on the management of the Strait of Hormuz. Although the US believes that Iran will aggressively insist on its rights, an American official noted that other Gulf states will never agree to a system of fees for crossing the strait.
The agreement document also includes a point that the US and regional partners will create a clear joint plan worth at least 300 billion dollars for the reconstruction and economic development of Iran. This will be finally decided within the next 60 days, and all licenses and permits will be provided by the US. However, this does not mean that the US will also be involved financially. One of the officials said that not a single cent is required from the US, and it does not have to contribute to the creation of a reconstruction fund. A hypothetical example was the possible (with US permission) construction of a United Arab Emirates power plant in Iran.
Trump and other US officials have tried very hard to explain that the US public will not have to make payments to Iran, and the administration insists that this is a stark contrast to the 2015 agreement between Iran and the administration of former US President Barack Obama.
The seventh point stipulates that the US will end all economic sanctions on Iran
– both those imposed by UN Security Council resolutions and those imposed unilaterally by the US, but it is not known how long this could take. The timetable will be agreed upon by both sides when the final agreement is concluded.
Iran has agreed not to build or acquire nuclear weapons, and both sides have agreed to remove the enriched uranium that Tehran already possesses. It is not clear how this will be done – the document notes that this will be discussed in future negotiations, but it is known that the uranium will be “downblended” under the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency. A US official called this measure “the bare minimum,” and said that it is a significant US success. Trump has said that preventing the development of a nuclear weapon was precisely what he wanted to achieve with the war against Iran.
The ninth and tenth points of the agreement also concern Tehran’s nuclear program – they stipulate that until the issue of enriched uranium is resolved, the Iranian nuclear program will remain in its current state. This means that the US will not impose new sanctions, but will issue permits for the export of oil and oil by-products and related services, as well as banking transactions and traffic.
Attention has also been paid to frozen assets,
and is one of the biggest sticking points in the negotiations. Iran has insisted that all frozen assets belonging to it be released, and the United States has pledged to make the frozen assets fully available after the memorandum is signed.
The last three points of the memorandum concern the implementation and monitoring of the agreement. The United States and Iran will establish a joint mechanism to monitor the implementation of the memorandum and also the implementation of future agreements, but it is unclear how this might look in practice. The last point also states that the final agreement will be approved by a binding UN Security Council resolution.
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