Russia currently poses no direct military threat to Latvia, although a number of signs point to potential longer-term plans, Latvia’s Constitution Protection Bureau (SAB) said.
According to SAB’s assessment, Vladimir Putin’s regime continues to operate under a distorted perception of threats, reinforced by the Kremlin elite’s growing isolation and the absence of critical internal views. Russia’s attitude towards Western countries, including Latvia, is becoming increasingly hostile and aggressive. SAB, in cooperation with other EU and NATO intelligence and security services, continues to monitor the situation and developments in the region.
SAB’s observations indicate that Russia’s perception of Latvia is becoming increasingly similar to the way it viewed Ukraine before launching the war.
This could lead to more aggressive Russian activities over the longer term, significantly increasing security risks for Europe.
Russia currently poses no direct military threat to Latvia,
although a number of signs point to potential longer-term plans. At the same time, Russia’s information activities, including its rhetoric, have become increasingly aggressive and provocative, SAB said.
As examples, SAB cited Russia’s unfounded accusations in May 2026 that Latvia had been involved in Ukrainian drone strikes against Russia, as well as the dissemination of false and distorted information concerning Latvian state-language proficiency examinations.
According to SAB, Russia’s intensified information activities — which are very likely also being driven by the country’s economic and other domestic problems — represent an attempt to exert pressure on both Latvia and its allies with the aim of reducing support for Ukraine.
As previously reported, Commander of the Latvian National Armed Forces (NBS) Kaspars Pudāns has also stated that Latvia currently faces no direct military threat.
At the same time, the NBS is preparing for possible Russian hybrid provocations.
He noted that no increased presence of the armed forces of aggressor states has been observed near Latvia’s borders. In the winter of 2021, Russian troops remained near Ukraine’s borders following military exercises, which was subsequently followed by the full-scale invasion. At present, there are no circumstances that would allow the same scenario to be repeated in the Baltic region.
Nevertheless, the NBS is preparing for possible Russian hybrid provocations.
Given the ongoing hostilities in Ukraine, further incursions by foreign unmanned aerial vehicles into Latvian airspace also cannot be ruled out. The NBS is taking specific measures to reduce the risks posed by hybrid threats, the NBS Commander said.
Enhanced support is already being provided to the State Border Guard to deter organisers of illegal migration from continuing their activities, as well as to detect and detain people illegally crossing the border.
It has also been reported that CIA Director John Ratcliffe warned Russian officials during his visit to Moscow against escalating the conflict with NATO, particularly with Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, two people familiar with the matter told Politico on Wednesday.
“The main purpose of Ratcliffe’s visit was to warn against escalatory actions targeting the Baltic states,”
one of the sources said.
The second source added that the CIA Director also sought to persuade Moscow to reduce its military and economic support for Iran.
Earlier on Wednesday, The Wall Street Journal also reported that Ratcliffe had warned Russia against attacking NATO member states.
According to Latvian President Edgars Rinkēvičs, the level and assessment of the military threat have not changed, and the risk of a direct Russian invasion is currently low.
The President has, however, noted that various acts of sabotage, cyberattacks and hybrid operations remain possible. Latvia and other NATO and European Union countries are, in fact, regularly confronted with such activities. Latvia’s internal security services, the National Armed Forces and NATO allies are taking measures to prevent such actions, he said.
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