It appears that the arrival of Kulbergs’ government could indeed bring winds of change to Latvian politics. The question is whether those winds will turn out to be nothing more than a gentle breeze. Nevertheless, the beginning is interesting: instead of the usual wrangling over a coalition agreement, there is a reform plan and a list of tasks. To understand what this unusual situation means for Latvian politics, BNN asked political scientist Filips Rajevskis, co-founder of the company Mediju tilts, for his assessment.
“The situation itself is unexpected and completely new,” the political scientist says. “With 41 seats in Parliament, the enormous United List parliamentary group and the fragmentation of the opposition, any political arrangement without the United List (AS) is impossible. In this situation, there is both a mandate and responsibility. Judging by how the negotiations are proceeding and how matters are being handled, it seems that the United List could form issue-based coalitions. First, of course, it needs to secure a majority to vote in an AS government, and I think they will find the necessary votes. We already saw during the election of the Saeima Presidium that cooperation exists and securing votes is not a problem.”
Filips Rajevskis also points out that bringing down Kulbergs’ government would be rather pointless, as the next government would once again be led by the United List. “The real political contest will be about what the United List can achieve with its large mandate and enormous responsibility, particularly in terms of fulfilling its promises. AS’s opponents and political rivals will try in every possible way to demonstrate that it is incapable of delivering on its promises and implementing its policies. This creates a situation of issue-based coalitions, where one majority exists for certain groups of issues and another majority for different matters. There will be a constant political game involving parliamentary majorities.”
Responding to BNN’s observation that more than half of the United List parliamentary group – 22 MPs – have been elected to Parliament for the first time and are unlikely, at least initially, to be able to participate fully in these political manoeuvres,
Rajevskis explains that this is precisely why AS needs an experienced parliamentary group leader such as Māris Kučinskis, who “knows how to play the parliamentary game”.
“He has experience spanning eight Saeima terms and served as the parliamentary group leader of the People’s Party when it was a large governing party. Then there is Edvards Smiltēns as Speaker, who went through the very demanding political school of Unity and will also participate in this game. He will not be easily outmanoeuvred. There is also Edgars Tavars, who has been through the old Union of Greens and Farmers political school and is no pushover either. I think there are sufficiently strong political players in Parliament who will be able to secure majorities and negotiate these parliamentary deals. The way the Presidium was elected already demonstrates that they know how to play this game. We will see who becomes chair of the parliamentary committees and so on, but I believe everything will function smoothly.”
The political scientist emphasises that the greatest burden will fall not on the Prime Minister but on the parliamentary group leader, who will have to manage these shifting majorities. “For example, there will be one majority for the budget, even though the budget itself may contain measures supported by different majorities. This game is extremely complicated, and it will be very difficult to keep track of when a majority exists and when it does not.”
Rajevskis also recalls the situation during the 5th Saeima, when the Latvia’s Way party won 36 seats. Throughout that parliamentary term, neither of the party’s two governments, led by Valdis Birkavs and Māris Gailis, had a parliamentary majority. Both were minority governments, and it was precisely this political manoeuvring with parliamentary votes that made it possible to maintain control of the government.
The political scientist also stresses that controlling key parliamentary committees is crucial for the government’s ability to operate effectively.
These include the Budget and Finance (Taxation) Committee, the Economic, Agricultural, Environmental and Regional Policy Committee, the Public Administration and Local Government Committee, the National Security Committee, and the Defence, Internal Affairs and Corruption Prevention Committee. “These are all committees that are necessary for the government to operate with strong parliamentary support.”
Asked what it means that no representative of New Unity was elected to the Saeima Presidium, Rajevskis replies that it is normal for the smallest parliamentary group not to have a representative in the parliamentary leadership. “Given the current composition of Parliament, it is understandable that the United List needs control over the Presidium in order to control parliamentary proceedings and the parliamentary agenda. With 41 seats, it is absolutely normal for them to have two representatives from their parliamentary group in the Presidium.”
Does Ainārs Šlesers’ promised support for a Kulbergs minority government mean that Latvia First, even if only as a supporter of individual government decisions, will finally escape its seemingly permanent position in opposition?
Rajevskis answers this question affirmatively, noting that
Latvia First (LPV) will certainly be part of issue-based coalitions.
“There is no reason to draw such red lines here, because we know very well that Šlesers has a firm position on the issue of Ukraine. He has also managed to consolidate the votes of Russian-speaking voters who are not pro-Kremlin and who have not forgotten who Crimea belongs to. Consequently, his participation in these arrangements would be relatively assured, although I do not think there will be a coalition with LPV as a partner in the traditional sense.”
At present, it is still too early to determine which parties will ultimately join the governing coalition. There is broad agreement among political observers that the National Alliance could be part of it, but opinions differ regarding New Unity.
Asked to share his predictions, Filips Rajevskis says: “If we look at what happened during the election of the Saeima Presidium, we can say with a very high degree of relative confidence that Unity will be in opposition, Sovereign Power/Young Latvians will be in opposition, and the Progressives will be in opposition.”