As German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s popularity at home plummets, the Russian dictator is trying to use it to his advantage, and the Kremlin has expanded its efforts to strengthen Germany’s far-right political forces that are friendly to Russia, writes Politico.
Although Putin has long sought to undermine the position of Merz, who is friendly to Ukraine and therefore on the Kremlin’s blacklist, conditions have rarely been so favorable for Moscow. Currently, German economic growth is slow, the centrist coalition is weakened, and the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is leading in voter polls ahead of elections in two federal states in eastern Germany. The party is expected to win historic victories there, and for the first time since its founding, it could take power.
Chris Schulenburg, a member of Merz’s Christian Democrats (CDU) in Saxony-Anhalt, said the Russians were looking for partners in Europe who could serve the Kremlin’s goals, and the goal was to bring the AfD to power in the near future, whether in state or national elections. This would give the Russians a strategic partner in Germany.
Putin has been trying to put pressure on Merc in recent weeks, both openly and in a more subtle way. In May, gas supplies from Kazakhstan, which used a Russian pipeline, were cut off. Putin has also suggested that former German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder, who is friendly to the Kremlin, could be the European Union’s representative in peace talks, in an attempt to divide public opinion. One of Putin’s advisers has also invited AfD representatives to Russia’s annual economic forum in St. Petersburg.
The Russian dictator’s strategy is to exploit Merz’s real and growing political weaknesses,
especially in the face of German discontent with the economic situation, and to widen the gap in opinion over military support for Ukraine. The Kremlin’s propaganda machine portrays Merz as ineffective and out of touch with reality, and has called the chancellor’s refusal to restore energy ties with Russia economic suicide. Moscow is also trying to portray Merz’s conservatives as reckless warmongers, given their support for Ukraine and their refusal to negotiate with Putin.
These narratives resonate particularly strongly in the former East Germany region, where public attitudes toward Moscow are more tolerant. With regional elections in September approaching, analysts expect Kremlin-backed trolls to launch influence campaigns online to spread pro-Russian messages more widely and quickly.
The German version of the Kremlin-affiliated Pravda has already seen a significant increase in anti-Merz coverage, by around 25%. The Berlin think tank Polisphere said the influence of such media should not be underestimated, given their influence on large language models and artificial intelligence-generated summaries.
Stefan Meister, a Russia expert at the German Council on Foreign Relations, said
the Kremlin sees the elections in the eastern German states as an opportunity to significantly weaken Germany
and its government. He said that if there is one thing the Russians are good at, it is discovering and exploiting the weaknesses of their opponents. The eastern regions of Germany are one of the weakest points in the German government, which affects Germany’s ability to act, as they are the entry point for the AfD.
According to the Kremlin’s narrative, Merz and his coalition are an obstacle to peace in Europe and prosperity in Germany, while a possible AfD government could be a solution. This also explains Putin’s desire to present himself as a leader who would be happy to build relations with Berlin, if only Berlin would be willing to work with him. This was very evident at the so-called Victory Day press conference, when Putin stressed his willingness to talk to the EU about Ukraine. He said he would prefer Schröder’s candidacy, adding that otherwise Europe needed to choose a leader it trusted and who had not spoken badly about Russia: “We have never closed the door to negotiations. It was not Russia that refused dialogue. It was our counterparts.”
Schröder’s suggestion was a well-calculated attempt to divide Germans while at the same time portraying Putin as a well-intentioned negotiator. The former chancellor is seen as an outcast among German politicians, given his involvement in Russian state-owned energy companies. Schröder also embodies Germany’s decades-long dependence on Russian energy, a dependence that Putin would be happy to restore.
The AfD has also announced its readiness to negotiate with Russia, and this week its leader, Alice Weidel, said that the threat to Germany is Ukraine, not Russia. She said in Berlin that the party considers the military action in Ukraine to be absolutely catastrophic, posing security risks to Germany.
“A German government led by the AfD will advocate for peace with Russia, for reconciliation and dialogue,”
the politician said.
Kirill Dmitriev, a close ally of Putin and the Kremlin’s envoy to the US administration, has called an AfD-led government a panacea for the country’s economy, for the simple reason that the party would restore energy imports from Russia. Dmitriev wrote on the X website that a much worse situation is expected until German bureaucrats change course and admit their mistakes, or an AfD-led government can save everything. It is a message that is regularly echoed by AfD politicians who call for the Nord Stream pipeline to be restored.
Schulenburg said that many voters in the federal state of Saxony-Anhalt find the simplicity of such a message attractive. Older voters, on the other hand, are more friendly towards Russia, having grown up behind the Iron Curtain. The politician said that it is easy to say – now we will be best friends with Russia again, energy will be cheaper and the economy will be better. “And there are just a lot of people who are receptive to this simple solution because they don’t question things and don’t understand — or don’t want to understand — the overall situation in the world,” Schulenburg added.
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