US scientists have announced that El Niño – a natural meteorological phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean that raises temperatures around the world – has begun and particularly extreme weather conditions are expected, writes the BBC.
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has announced that water surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean have risen sharply in recent months and that El Niño has begun. Many forecasts indicate that this time a so-called super El Niño could form, and it could be among the strongest ever recorded.
Adding to decades of human-caused global warming, El Niño could bring another record-breaking hot year (most likely next year), characterized by extreme weather conditions, disruptions to the food supply and causing damage to the economy. NOAA’s announcement is not surprising, as weather forecasters had already predicted the hot phase.
Sea surface temperatures in the central and tropical Pacific Ocean have warmed 0.5 degrees Celsius above average, signaling the onset of an El Niño. NOAA has also observed a change in wind direction over the equatorial Pacific, signaling that the atmosphere is responding to the warmer ocean. What has surprised scientists is the robust predictions of the strength of El Niño from computer models. This is measured by how much sea surface temperatures rise above average. A strong El Niño is 1.5 degrees Celsius above average, while a very strong El Niño is characterized by temperatures rising 2 degrees Celsius above normal. NOAA’s
June forecast shows a 63 percent chance of a particularly strong El Niño between November and January.
Some of the latest U.S. and European models predict that temperatures in the tropical Pacific could rise as much as three degrees Celsius above normal.
NOAA has called for attention to what the forecasts mean – even a very strong El Niño does not leave an impact everywhere, however, the stronger it is, the greater the likelihood that the predicted will happen. The greatest concern is that everything is happening on an already very warm planet. Professor Adam Scaife, a representative of the British Meteorological Service, said that we should be worried about the possible impact, because this El Niño is taking place in warmer conditions than before, so temperatures in the regions affected by it could rise to unprecedented records.
The hottest year on record was 2024, and then there was an El Niño, which was not even very strong. And, despite the fact that La Niña occurred in 2025, it was the third hottest year on record, hotter than 2016, when a super-strong El Niño prevailed. Professor Scaife said the world will experience extremely high temperatures by the end of 2027.
No two El Niños are the same, but the effects are felt most strongly in the tropics.
Severe flooding is occurring in northern Peru and southern Ecuador, and the effects could reach eastern Africa, central Asia and the southern United States. At the same time, the threat of drought and wildfires is increasing in Australia, Indonesia and northern South America, seriously affecting agriculture and food supplies.
El Niño tends to suppress Atlantic hurricanes, and a milder season is already forecast. Liz Stephens, a professor at the University of Reading, said that while that sounds good, it means much less rainfall in Central America and the threat of drought.
For many, the onset of an El Niño is not an abstract forecast but a warning siren. Mohamed Adow, the head of the group Power Shift Africa, said it would mean crop failures, dying plants, rising food prices and families being thrown into crisis. Especially in eastern Africa, where it would threaten communities already suffering from floods and drought in previous years.
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