Europe’s demographic crisis is not a future challenge, but an existing situation, and the European Commission has warned in its latest report that the European Union’s population will have shrunk by 50 million people by the end of the century, while also ageing significantly.
The report predicts that the EU’s population will shrink from around 450 million people today to 400 million people in 2100. By 2050, one in three Europeans will be 65 or older (currently one in five EU citizens has reached the age of 65). Dubravka Šuica, the EC’s Commissioner for Demography and the Mediterranean, presented the report, saying that it is an achievement, but it also raises questions about how the necessary workforce will be provided and how pensions and healthcare will be financed.
The report’s findings highlight challenges already facing many countries, including Lithuania, where mortality continues to outpace birth rates. Each year, around 18,000 children are born in Lithuania, while around 38,000 people die. This means that the country’s population is shrinking by 20,000 people each year. Daumantas Stumbrys, a professor at the Faculty of Philosophy at Vilnius University, said that the main factor is an undesirable population structure – there are relatively few people of working age, but there is a large elderly population, and the birth rate is low.
Population projections for Lithuania vary, but all point to a population decline in the coming decades. Depending on assumptions about birth rates, mortality rates and migration, projections estimate that Lithuania’s current population of 2.8 million could shrink to as little as 1.3 million by 2100. Other forecasts are more optimistic, expecting the population to be no less than 2.3 million.
According to Eurostat, Lithuania and Latvia will experience the sharpest population declines in the EU.
The EC has said that migration alone will not be able to reverse demographic trends. While migration can help alleviate labour shortages, it also requires investment in housing, infrastructure and integration policies.
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, a senior fellow at the Brussels think tank Bruegel, said that countries that have managed immigration most successfully have focused on attracting students and professionals who later join the country’s workforce, rather than simply relying on migration as a tool to increase their population. He also noted that raising the retirement age remains one of the most effective ways to address the fiscal consequences of an ageing population, as it both extends working life and reduces the period over which pensions are payable.
Raising the birth rate is a more difficult challenge, and Kirkegaard said governments should focus on supporting people who want children by expanding childcare provision and making it easier for parents to return to work, including by offering part-time work and more flexible working conditions.
The EC is considering setting up an agency to study demographic trends and has previously encouraged EU member states to set up ministries responsible for demographic issues. Currently, only Croatia, Slovenia and Italy have such ministries.
Read the full article in English here: https://www.lrt.lt/en/news-in-english/19/2998071/lithuania-among-eu-countries-facing-steepest-population-decline
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