Opinion article
As concerns over fertilizer availability continue to grow, an increasing number of experts are warning that prolonged supply disruptions could affect not only agricultural production and food availability around the world, but also strengthen the Russian economy, as many of these shipments continue to pass through ports controlled by the aggressor state.
In recent months, the United States has called for solutions that would allow larger volumes of Belarusian fertilizers to reach global markets while bypassing Russia. This is a significant signal: fertilizers are increasingly being viewed not only through the lens of sanctions or trade policy, but also as a critical component of food security and global stability.
Russia and its logistics sector generate approximately 500–600 million euros annually from fertilizer transit through Russian ports. These revenues come from railway transportation and port services. By closing our own ports to fertilizer transit, we have effectively handed this income to the aggressor state. These millions also help Russia continue its war against Ukraine.
Latvia should be paying particularly close attention to these developments. Belarus remains one of the world’s most important producers of potash fertilizers, while Latvia has historically occupied a strategic position within one of the region’s key transportation and logistics corridors.
Therefore, any changes in fertilizer supply chains inevitably affect Latvia’s interests as well
—regardless of politicians who prefer to remove this issue from the agenda and pretend that everything is fine.
It is not fine.
If the world is seeking new or restored fertilizer supply corridors, port infrastructure, railway connections, terminals, and logistics capacity become decisive factors. These are issues that directly affect investment, employment, business development, and the ability of countries to benefit from changes in global markets rather than allowing those benefits to strengthen Russia’s economy.
Experts are increasingly warning that challenges in the fertilizer market are becoming a matter of both food security and economic security. Discussions are already taking place worldwide on how to ensure more stable fertilizer supplies while bypassing Russian railways and ports, thereby reducing risks that could trigger even sharper increases in food prices in the future. At present, transshipment costs in Russian port terminals are approximately 20 dollars per ton, while rail transportation costs to deliver cargo to those ports amount to around 28 dollars per ton. These costs are expected to continue rising, sending ever more “potash dollars” into Russia’s war chest—funds that ultimately return in the form of bombs falling on Ukrainian cities and civilians.
We have an opportunity to change this situation. Latvia possesses the geographical location, infrastructure, and professional expertise needed to play a significant role in regional supply chains. For this reason, the new government should evaluate not only the potential challenges but also the benefits that changes in global supply chains could bring to Latvia. If the international community is actively seeking new solutions for fertilizer transportation, Latvia must define its role in this process before others do.
This is not merely a question of transit.
It is about port development, investment, jobs, and economic growth. While the world searches for solutions to strengthen food security, Latvia must also recognize and seize the opportunities available to its own economy.
Read also: While Latvia remains silent, Russia profits: fertiliser transit continues to feed the war economy
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