Farmers around the world are experiencing a second major surge in mineral fertilizer prices within four years. Disruptions to fertilizer supplies linked to the war involving Iran could create serious challenges for next year’s grain harvest and significantly drive up food prices.
According to the April report by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), around 29% of recorded food and agricultural policy measures in March 2026 were related to government responses to disruptions in energy and fertilizer supplies caused by the conflict in the Middle East, including rising costs. For example, calculations by the University of Illinois show that by April 13, 2026, the price of urea in the United States was 41.1% higher than in mid-February and 48.7% higher than a year earlier.
Sanctions are making food supply chains more fragile
While wealthier countries and major buyers such as India can outbid others and purchase fertilizers at significantly higher prices, farmers in the United States and Europe are feeling the strain of rising costs. In Africa and other import-dependent regions, the situation risks turning into a serious crisis for crop yields and food security.
This is why fertilizers have become such a politically sensitive issue in debates over sanctions and transit. Restrictions on countries such as Belarus, Russia, or others clash with fears that global food supply chains could become even more fragile. For instance, potash—an essential nutrient for crops—cannot be substituted: farmers cannot replace potassium with nitrogen or phosphorus and expect the same yields. As a result, the removal or return of a major supplier like Belarus has an immediate impact on prices, trade routes, and buyers.
As noted by the World Bank, the fertilizer market remains highly dependent on sanctions, tariffs, and trade policy. Belarus continues to be a key supplier of potash, while EU sanctions and new restrictions are redirecting supply flows toward Asia and the Americas and increasing costs.
Impact on grain prices
Unlike in 2022, when high grain prices helped offset rising costs, current grain prices are lower, leaving farmers with less capacity to absorb the impact of more expensive fertilizers.
According to Reuters, urea shipments from a major production facility in Qatar have been halted, flows of sulfur and ammonia are constrained, and some cargoes remain stuck in the Persian Gulf. The sharp rise in fertilizer prices observed since late February signals trouble not only for farmers but also for consumers worldwide.
Global media warn that the fertilizer shortages caused by the conflict involving Iran could lead to higher food prices as early as this year.
In Africa, the threat to food security stems not only from rising fertilizer costs but also from declining crop yields. Farmers in Sub-Saharan Africa may face shortages of ammonia, urea, phosphates, sulfur, and other key inputs required for food production.
The Strait of Hormuz plays a crucial role not only for oil but also for fertilizer supply chains, including the export of urea and sulfur. Sulfur is also essential for the production of phosphate fertilizers. As a result, the risks extend beyond nitrogen-based fertilizers—the disruption could spread to phosphate markets as well.
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