A direct conventional military attack by Russia against NATO is currently not possible, and this assessment is based on military realities rather than an attempt to reassure the public, Latvian Defence Minister Raivis Melnis said in an interview with the LETA news agency.
Melnis argued that Russia remains heavily tied down in Ukraine, where Ukrainian forces continue to disrupt Russian logistics and strike targets deep behind the front lines, preventing Moscow from expanding its offensive capabilities.
“As things stand, a direct conventional military attack on NATO is not possible,” the minister said.
He explained that any large-scale assault on NATO would require Russia to redeploy substantial forces away from Ukraine, assemble military units near the Baltic region and prepare for an offensive—steps that NATO would detect well in advance.
Moreover, such a move would create significant opportunities for Ukraine to intensify its own military operations, something Russia cannot afford.
“Can Russia afford to fight on two fronts? That would be a strategic mistake,”
Melnis said.
“The invasion of Ukraine itself was already a strategic miscalculation. That is why Russia will not be capable of doing anything similar in the near future. I am not saying this simply to reassure people.”
While dismissing the likelihood of a direct conventional attack, the minister warned that Russia is already carrying out hybrid provocations, including the use of irregular migration as a tool of pressure.
He added that other forms of provocation remain possible, but stressed that Latvia’s armed forces and internal security services are prepared to respond.
“If we see warning signs, we are ready to act. There will be no ‘little green men’ walking around here, and drones will not be allowed to fly. If there is a drone, we will destroy it. If there are ‘little green men’, the internal security services and the State Security Service will arrest or neutralise them,” Melnis said.
He stressed that
both Latvia’s security services and the armed forces remain on standby to respond quickly to any provocations.
Looking further ahead, Melnis said Russia will eventually rebuild its military capabilities. However, he noted that NATO is also strengthening its armed forces to ensure they are capable of deterring—and, if necessary, defeating—any future aggression.
“We cannot get inside President Vladimir Putin’s head,” the minister said. “What we can do is be prepared, and that is exactly what we are doing—preparing our forces to respond both to provocations and to defend the country if necessary.”
Read also: Latvia plans long-term support strategy for Ukrainians living in the country