Ilona Bērziņa
With one month remaining until Latvia’s 15th Saeima election, BNN is launching a series of articles introducing the political forces that, according to opinion polls, are either expected to cross the 5% electoral threshold or are close to doing so. The remaining parties will be covered in a separate overview, because miracles do happen and, every now and then, “Cinderella” makes it to the ball. But first, we offer a retrospective look at Latvia’s governments over the past four years.
During this period, Latvia has experienced the shock of soaring electricity bills, tax reforms, mortgage support measures, changes to the second pillar of the pension system, billions for Rail Baltica, millions for airBaltic, and special charter flights for the prime minister. Prime ministers, ministers and governing coalitions have changed, yet there has also been remarkable continuity when it comes to the country’s so-called “painful issues”: Rail Baltica still needs rescuing, airBaltic still needs money, healthcare is still underfunded and limping on both legs, while yet another government promises that bureaucracy will be cut any day now.
The Kariņš effect, or the government that dismissed itself
In the 14th Saeima election, New Unity won 18.97% of the vote and secured a convincing first place, the United List received 11.01%, the National Alliance 9.29%, and the Progressives 6.16%. Four years later, what remains of the original political landscape resembles a room after a children’s party: the furniture is more or less the same, only rearranged; some of the guests have fallen out over who should get the bucket and spade; and nobody really wants to admit who broke the vase.
Krišjānis Kariņš will most likely go down in history as an election winner who dismantled his own government. His second government took office in December 2022 with fairly comfortable political capital. The coalition consisted of election winner New Unity, the United List and the National Alliance. It seemed that all the government had to do was get on with governing. That, however, proved to be the hardest part.
The Kariņš cabinet also had undeniable achievements. One of the most significant was the introduction of the State Defence Service at a time when Russia’s war against Ukraine had made the issue of Latvia’s security considerably more tangible than the traditional election slogan of “strengthening national defence”.
The traditional problems that had plagued more than one previous government continued to roll along as if on rails. In the spring of 2023, teachers went on strike. Ahead of the strike, Kariņš declared that it would “change nothing”, because striking would not somehow produce additional money for teachers’ salaries. Summer brought the shock of higher electricity distribution tariffs, while inside the government a months-long debate began over whether the coalition should be expanded.
Meanwhile, the new electricity distribution tariffs punched a hole in household budgets, while the government sought to calm public concern by arguing that without its intervention the increase would have been even greater. In political marketing terms, that is roughly equivalent to responding to a flood-producing downpour by telling people to be grateful it was not a hurricane…
While people were trying to make sense of their electricity bills, the government was consumed by internal disagreements. So many pots and pans were smashed in the political kitchen after Kariņš demanded that the coalition be expanded to include the Union of Greens and Farmers (ZZS) and the Progressives that Kariņš eventually resigned. There is another telling detail: in July 2023, New Unity was supported by 12.6% of respondents in an SKDS poll. By September, that figure had fallen to just 7.7%.
Evika Siliņa’s government: achievements and obvious chaos
If the Kariņš government could never quite decide which political partners it actually wanted to work with, Evika Siliņa solved the problem simply: she removed the United List and the National Alliance from the coalition and gave their seats at the decision-making table to ZZS and the Progressives.
People may like or dislike this government, but the Siliņa cabinet cannot be accused of having done nothing. Mortgage refinancing was simplified and competition between banks was strengthened. Support was introduced for borrowers during the period of high EURIBOR rates. As a result of the prescription medicine price reform, the prices of around 90% of prescription medicines fell, while the tax reform increased the monthly tax-free allowance for pensioners to EUR 1,000.
There was, however, a fly in the ointment. Since money does not multiply by itself, the contribution rate to the second pillar of the pension system was reduced to 5% for four years – from 2025 to 2028 – with one percentage point redirected to the first pension pillar. In the political balance sheet of the tax reform, this is the classic case of “more money today, less money in funded pension savings tomorrow”.
The Siliņa government also faced farmers’ protests. One of the farmers’ main demands was to restore the 5% VAT rate on fresh fruit, berries and vegetables characteristic of Latvia, a proposal strongly backed by ZZS. As a result of a political compromise, a reduced VAT rate of 12% was retained for these products instead of the standard 21%. Once again, the government could pat itself on the back and declare: yes, things got worse, but they could have been even worse.
The chaos surrounding the management of Rail Baltica became visible in all its glory during Siliņa’s time in office. It emerged that the project’s scope had been altered without a unified approach, decisions were difficult to trace, the Cabinet of Ministers had been insufficiently involved in overseeing the project, and estimated construction costs for Latvia’s main Rail Baltica route had increased sevenfold.
Admittedly, all of this was the joint achievement of several governments. But it was during Siliņa’s government that the infamous Rail Baltica pile was concreted into the Daugava River – a structure that came to symbolise the absurdities surrounding the entire project. For the government, it proved easier to “swallow the lump” than to undertake a serious reassessment of the project.
Overall, the Siliņa government also failed to convince the public that the country was moving in the right direction. After just its first three months, 33% of respondents believed the government had performed worse than expected, while only 5.3% thought it had done better. By October 2025, 56% of respondents in an SKDS poll believed the government should fall before the next Saeima election, while only 27.9% wanted it to remain in office until the election.
In May 2026, Defence Minister Andris Sprūds resigned following a drone incident. The Progressives announced that they would no longer support the Siliņa government. Criminal proceedings were launched against ZZS Agriculture Minister Armands Krauze in the so-called timber industry case, and Siliņa dismissed him from office. On 14 May, Siliņa herself resigned.
Andris Kulbergs’ government is gaining popularity faster than it is delivering results
With Andris Kulbergs’ government – consisting of the United List, the National Alliance, New Unity and ZZS – Latvia has finally acquired an impressive parliamentary majority of 66 votes. Yet of the 61 priority measures included in the government’s action plan, only seven had been fully completed as of 12 August.
Kulbergs has also inherited Rail Baltica and airBaltic, and it is precisely here that the prime minister’s desire to demonstrate a new style of government runs head-first into the reality of Latvia’s state-owned companies.
The Saeima vote on the possibility of pouring up to another EUR 30 million into airBaltic’s seemingly bottomless pocket and extending the repayment deadline for a previously issued loan showed that this coalition, too, is stable only until the moment MPs actually have to press the voting buttons. Even coalition member ZZS voted against the additional support.
Voters, however, seem to like Kulbergs – at least for now. In May, the United List was supported by 6.8% of respondents. In June, support rose to 9.8%, in July to 12.2%, and in August to 15.2%. Such a rapid political rise in Latvia is usually the result of either exceptionally successful government performance or the fact that a politician simply has not been in office long enough yet.
The picture is considerably harsher for the other parties in Kulbergs’ government. In August, New Unity stood at 4.2%, the National Alliance at 4.5%, and ZZS at 2.8%. Meanwhile, the Progressives, who left the government, were in third place with 8.8%.
Still, let us remember that there is another month to go before the election and, as noted at the beginning, miracles can happen even in politics.
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