Some officials in the Joe Biden administration doubt whether the 60 billion US dollar aid package for Ukraine will be enough to help Ukraine win its two-year war with Russia. According to three US officials, the dynamics on the battlefield have changed dramatically in recent months, partly because Ukraine ran out of weapons and ammunition while the US was debating the aid, on Wednesday, the 24th of April, reports Politico.
US officials are concerned about Russia’s military superiority and question Ukraine’s ability to recover months and years of territorial losses, questioning Kyiv’s tactics and priorities after the failed counter-offensive operation.
“The immediate goal is to halt Ukraine’s losses and help Ukraine regain momentum
and turn the tide on the battlefield. After that, the goal is to help Ukraine regain its territory,” one of the officials was quoted as saying. “Will they have everything they need to win? In principle, yes. But it is not a guarantee that they will achieve it. Military operations are much more complex.”
Lawmakers on Capitol Hill are also questioning whether increased US aid to Ukraine will ensure victory against Russia or only allow Ukraine to temporarily resist invasion.
Biden, signing the aid package for Ukraine on Wednesday, stressed that Russia is using its military power to attack civilian infrastructure and underlined the need to increase Kyiv power.
“They have killed tens of thousands of Ukrainians”, Biden was quoted as saying, “bombed hospitals… kindergartens, grain bunkers, tried to plunge Ukraine into a cold and dark winter”.
Representative Bill Keating, who met with Zelenskyy in Kyiv this week, also expressed concern about Ukraine’s ability to make significant gains against Russia, suggesting that
the conflict could enter a period of stagnation.
National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told reporters on Tuesday that Ukraine still lacks a comprehensive plan to defeat Russia but added that the US is engaged in discussions to refine Ukraine’s strategy and will tailor future assistance accordingly.
The Biden administration has stressed that the outcome of the war will be determined by Ukraine, whether through military victory or negotiations. However, a senior Democratic Senate staffer said that Ukrainian President Zelenskyy’s commitment to reclaim Crimea and other territories is indicative of a long conflict with an uncertain outcome.
National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said on Wednesday that the Biden administration regrets the delay in delivering vital aid to Ukraine, acknowledging that Russia could use the gap to make further gains in the coming weeks.
“We will need time to dig out of the hole we dug by delaying for six months,” he added.
The next package for Ukraine will total one billion US dollars and include long-range tactical missile system weapons for the army.
Both Democrats and Republicans have stressed that the quality of the weapons sent is crucial to Ukraine’s success.
“The administration needs to send high-quality weapons like ATACMS,” Don Bacon, a member of the House Armed Services Committee, was quoted as saying.
Biden administration officials expect the 60 billion dollars in aid to last until the end of Biden’s term, but uncertainty remains over future aid if Biden is not re-elected.
Analysts argue that the main focus the aid assessment should be on its impact on Ukraine’s position against Russia. Samuel Charap of the RAND Corporation has said that the aid could influence Russia’s willingness to compromise, moving from a “win or lose” scenario to terms that are more favourable to Ukraine’s endgame, adding that the aid gives Ukraine an advantage in improving its position.
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