Prime Minister Evika Siliņa’s “pre-emptive maneuver” to dismiss Defence Minister Andris Sprūds literally minutes before he himself announced his resignation turned out to be the small spark that brought down the entire government. The visible consequence was the Prime Minister’s own resignation after the party The Progressives announced that, at least regarding a vote on her dismissal, Siliņa could no longer count on the support of the party’s nine MPs in parliament.
To understand what this “childish tug-of-war” really means, BNN spoke with political analyst and co-owner of media company “Mediju tilts,” Filips Rajevskis.
“It was obvious that this coalition was incapable of functioning. That had already become clear recently, considering the relationships between the coalition partners,” the political analyst said.
“The only question was what would provide the trigger for everything to collapse. In this case, we saw the drone situation, which created significant public dissatisfaction with Sprūds’ work and became exactly the kind of external
trigger needed for a coalition that had already been dysfunctional for some time to fall apart.”
Asked why the situation erupted precisely now — just five months before parliamentary elections — and why almost all parties represented in parliament appear eager for their own candidate to be nominated by the President to form the next government, Rajevskis pointed to the current party ratings.
“The polling picture shows that all political parties have suffered, and voters are no longer clearly distinguishing between coalition and opposition parties. Voters are dissatisfied with the overall state of affairs, which is reflected in extremely low ratings for virtually all political forces. Even the parties leading the polls still have very low ratings. This shows that attempts by both coalition and opposition politicians to drag things out could end with new political forces entering the next Saeima — parties that are not even represented in parliament right now — or with voters simply staying home out of disappointment.”
He believes political parties on both sides have realized that voters will not forgive “six months of stalling and collecting salaries while doing nothing.”
“There is a broad public consensus that Latvia is falling behind its neighbors in almost every sphere.
Political parties understand that the five months remaining until the elections is actually a perfect amount of time — short enough for a new government to enjoy a honeymoon period with new faces, new ministers and fresh political dynamics.”
Commenting on the competition among parties for the prime minister’s position, Rajevskis said it could also serve as a highly effective election campaign opportunity.
“The people and political parties that form the next coalition will be at the center of public attention, and the next prime minister will also be in the spotlight. People are tired of this government, and simply through the effect of change they could receive a positive boost in public opinion and polling.”
Asked how bringing down the government could affect the popularity of The Progressives themselves, Rajevskis noted that the party’s ratings have remained virtually unchanged since the previous parliamentary elections.
“They have not been major losers, but neither have they been winners.
And what we also saw during their party congress, when they nominated a candidate for prime minister, was rhetoric indicating their ambition to ‘take away’ a portion of voters from New Unity.”
“They have always been much more radical in their left-wing and progressive ideas, but it seems that in order to attract disillusioned ‘Unity’ voters, they have shifted more toward the political center. However, this crisis could create a situation where they not only fail to win over ‘Unity’ voters, but also lose part of their own core electorate.”
Rajevskis also pointed out that, judging by the current parliamentary composition and political situation, Siliņa appears to be counting on remaining in office longer than many expect through a caretaker government arrangement.
“It seems they could remain longer as the technical management of the fallen government
and not rush into forming a new coalition — especially from the ‘Unity’ side. As the largest parliamentary faction, they will have their own demands, goals and conditions during coalition negotiations. Therefore, this process may not move quickly.”
Asked whether this effectively rules out a minority government scenario, Rajevskis responded:
“A minority government would be extremely difficult to maintain. It would either depend on support from Latvia First or at least part of ‘Unity.’ At the moment, that does not look very realistic.”
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