The Lithuanian intelligence agency’s annual national security threat report notes that while Moscow is devoting most of its resources to continuing its aggression in Ukraine, its ability to directly threaten Lithuania or any other NATO country is limited.
The report says that if Russia continues to wage war in Ukraine with the same force as it has for the past four years, it will require significant human resources and funding. However, even while fighting in Ukraine, Russia is continuing military reforms and creating new units, most of which will be sent to Ukraine. According to the report, if the war continues for a long time, from six to ten years, Russia will still be able to create new units, both in terms of equipment and personnel. At the same time, Moscow may have difficulty restoring the strategic reserves of weapons and ammunition that would be needed for a large-scale conflict with NATO.
The worst-case scenario, according to Lithuanian intelligence, could be a peace treaty that would lift all or most international sanctions. In that case, Moscow would be ready to launch an aggression in the Baltic region within a year or two, and within six to ten years it would be able to prepare for a large-scale conflict with NATO. In the long term, Russia would be able to create an army that is not only larger than it currently has, but also more modern.
The report emphasizes that Russia’s ability to survive economic difficulties, heavy personnel losses in battles, and international sanctions is remarkable. Despite the war, which requires large resources, Moscow is also operating on NATO’s eastern border, expanding its presence from brigades to divisions, and new military formations are being created. Russia is also developing military infrastructure in Königsberg. Lithuanian intelligence reports that
many of the new units are not fully manned due to a lack of personnel and equipment,
and even those are mainly sent to Ukraine.
The Russian defense industry is currently able to provide all the necessary weapons, which is alarming to Lithuanians. Modernization of factories continues, and new factories are being built. In 2025, Russian defense industry companies are said to have intensified their focus on finding engineers to create new equipment.
At the same time, Russia is having difficulty finding alternatives to electronic components for high-tech systems. Some technologies are being purchased from Beijing. Although Lithuanian intelligence services believe that Russia is unlikely to be able to catch up with the West in the field of high technology, its resilience to sanctions could increase significantly in the next three to five years.
The report highlighted a rapid increase in Russia’s production capacity for drones. The volume of production of certain types of drones in 2025, compared to previous years, has increased by two to ten times, as a result of which Russia is carrying out much more extensive attacks on Ukraine. The increase in drone activity has also increased the risk of incidents outside Ukraine.
Last year, two drones flew into Lithuania and crashed there.
Even after four years, Russia has not changed its strategic goals, and is still trying to seize larger parts of Ukrainian territory and bring Ukraine under Moscow’s complete control. To achieve this, Russia is trying to divide Ukraine’s supporters, and the Kremlin’s rhetoric increasingly calls Europe its main enemy.
Despite the fact that Russia is facing economic difficulties and the country has increased taxes, experts do not believe that financial pressure will force Moscow to change its aggressive foreign policy.
The report also notes that Belarus, led by Alexander Lukashenko, although it has tried to reduce tensions in relations with the West, is unlikely to abandon authoritarian policies. Minsk is using political prisoners as a bargaining chip, and improving economic cooperation with the West will not replace Belarus’ growing dependence on Russia, and Minsk’s attitude towards its neighbors is expected to remain hostile.
Read the full article in English here: https://www.lrt.lt/en/news-in-english/19/2859104/lithuanian-intelligence-says-russia-won-t-threaten-nato-while-ukraine-war-continues
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