This weekend, it became known that negotiations on forming Latvia’s new government will begin on the 28th of October, three weeks after President Edgars Rinkēvičs entrusted Andris Kulbergs with the task. With the United List holding 41 seats in parliament, potential coalition partners have little room to demand political concessions, influential positions or other benefits. Nevertheless, the election winner is taking his time. BNN asked political scientist Filips Rajevskis, co-founder of Mediju tilts, to explain the reasons behind the delay.
“I think he is doing the right thing,” the political scientist says. “Everyone is trying to operate according to the principles we have always been accustomed to, when coalition-building begins on election night as soon as the first results come in. Under the usual procedure, the president invites representatives of all parliamentary groups for consultations before nominating a candidate for prime minister. First, the president consults the parliamentary groups, negotiations between parties take place in parallel, and then the president names a candidate for prime minister. That is the normal procedure we have become accustomed to since Latvia regained its independence. However, Latvia has never experienced a situation in which one political force holds 41 seats. These 41 seats have completely changed the political paradigm. We can now see who is ready and capable of adapting to the new situation and who is not.”
Rajevskis argues that Kulbergs’ decision to take a pause is justified by the circumstances. “The first thing he publicly promised was a package of 100 laws that would need to be amended to reduce government expenditure. One hundred laws in one hundred days. Even before the election, he said that anyone wanting to join his coalition would have to sign up to these changes. When he made that statement, he could not have imagined, even in his wildest dreams, winning 41 seats. But now he has those seats, and his words sound almost remarkably prophetic.
It seems that the political parties are not simply waiting. They are waiting for him to come and explain his plans.
It does not appear that anyone has proposals of their own to present to Kulbergs. That is the first point. The second is that he needs time to prepare his action plan. That is precisely what he publicly calls it – an action plan. It would form the basis of the government declaration and the framework for cooperation with other parliamentary groups to establish a majority in the Saeima.”
The political scientist also points to what he describes as a psychological challenge that some parties previously in power are struggling to overcome.
“There are parties that are taking the situation very emotionally and finding it painful to accept that they have suffered a fundamental defeat, despite their high expectations and the enormous amounts of public money channelled into various media outlets through institutions such as the Society Integration Foundation, the Media Support Fund and other organisations that have invested money in the media. The first is New Unity, which entered the current Saeima with 26 seats, lost one MP along the way, and has now seen its representation fall from 25 to just seven seats. It is extremely difficult for them to come to terms with losing 18 seats. I imagine the atmosphere within the parliamentary group is rather unpleasant. Those seven who have been elected are probably viewed with a certain amount of resentment by the others.
And for those whose parliamentary careers end on the 3rd of November, when they must leave their comfortable offices in parliament, emotions are undoubtedly running high.”
“The second is the Progressives, who were widely expected to win 17 or 18 seats but ended up with exactly the same number as in the previous Saeima – ten. It can be said with considerable confidence that the next four years will be lean years for them, spent in opposition. Naturally, they are losing their nerve. They are trying to create the impression that there is some urgent question to answer: where is Kulbergs? In reality, Kulbergs has no reason to rush. The president has given him a mandate, and he can use this time to prepare for negotiations. Once the president formally asks him to form a government in accordance with the law, he will not actually need much time. He can choose his coalition partner because he does not need many additional votes to secure a parliamentary majority.”
BNN pointed out that Progressives leader Andris Šuvajevs has already suggested that Kulbergs appears confused and that his party is overwhelmed by its electoral success. Rajevskis responded that it is the Progressives themselves who currently appear confused, arguing that they were “absolutely not prepared for four lean years”.
Asked whether Kulbergs could form a government with the National Alliance alone or would also need to invite New Unity, the political scientist emphasised that holding 41 parliamentary seats gives the prime minister considerable room for manoeuvre.
“I think he needs one partner, and the National Alliance looks like the most natural coalition partner.
At the same time, he has the opportunity, and indeed the need, to build relationships with Šlesers, with Latvia First and with New Unity, so that he has strategic flexibility and greater freedom of action. Because we understand perfectly well that having only the National Alliance in the coalition, with a total of 51 seats in parliament, would be complicated.”
Rajevskis stressed that Kulbergs should focus on expanding his political options rather than limiting them. “What he needs to do strategically is broaden his room for manoeuvre, not narrow it. Normally, forming a coalition reduces those options. He should do everything possible to expand them and ensure that he can rely on the largest possible number of votes in parliament under different circumstances. For example, Raivis Melnis would certainly be suitable as defence minister in the next government. He appeared as a leading figure on New Unity’s election posters. People who voted for New Unity were effectively saying that they supported Raivis Melnis becoming defence minister. I have the impression that Kulbergs would be comfortable with Raivis Melnis serving as defence minister, which would create additional opportunities for cooperation and political manoeuvring with New Unity. He should do everything possible to maintain a broad network of potential partners, giving him the flexibility to work with different parliamentary majorities depending on the situation.”