Russia, unable to defeat Ukraine, is raising the stakes in Europe, and civilian casualties cannot be ruled out, Director of Latvia’s Constitution Protection Bureau (SAB) Egils Zviedris said in an interview with LETA.
SAB has been warning about the escalation of Russia’s unconventional warfare since early spring. According to Zviedris, Russia has been unable to achieve its stated objective of victory in the war against Ukraine and is therefore escalating the situation in Europe in response to Western support for Ukraine.
This escalation includes hybrid threats such as cyberattacks, physical acts of sabotage and information warfare. Russia is escalating the situation because it has failed to weaken Western support for Ukraine or secure an easing of sanctions, Zviedris explained.
This has resulted in incidents such as drones carrying explosives at Leipzig Airport and acts of sabotage targeting railway lines in European countries.
“Russia is raising the stakes, and unfortunately, we cannot rule out civilian casualties,”
the head of Latvia’s intelligence service stressed.
Zviedris pointed out that, so far, false-flag operations are essentially the only type of operation Russia has not carried out in Europe, as other forms of hostile activity have already occurred.
He recalled that Latvia has experienced the desecration of monuments and an arson attack on the Museum of the Occupation of Latvia, while Russian opposition figures living in Lithuania have been attacked. Recent warnings by Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk about threats from Russia were specifically related to the risk of false-flag operations, Zviedris said.
He also pointed to a recent Russian attack on a Ukrainian passenger train just two kilometres from the Polish border.
“Tusk was therefore warning about Russian attacks near the borders of NATO countries.
Such statements are a warning to Russia that we see what it is doing near the borders of our countries and that we will not tolerate it,” the SAB director added.
Zviedris also recalled that Latvia has requested the deployment of four NATO fighter jets to the country for the duration of the Saeima election, a request to which Germany has responded.
The move is intended to prevent possible provocations, such as unidentified flying objects entering Latvian airspace, which could subsequently fuel speculation about the legitimacy of the election process.
“So the threat from Russia is real, and as the aggressor is unable to achieve its objectives in Ukraine, the stakes are being raised,” Zviedris added.
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