European allies are concerned that a defeat for the Republican Party in the midterm elections could intensify US President Donald Trump’s critical stance toward NATO, reports Politico.Five diplomats from the alliance, speaking on condition of anonymity, told Politico that the primary concern is that Trump—facing domestic constraints due to a lack of support in Congress—might seek to leave a lasting mark on foreign policy in his capacity as Commander-in-Chief. This could mean the withdrawal of thousands more troops from Europe.A high-ranking European defense official noted that presidents nearing the end of their terms often exhibit frustration and engage in foreign policy adventurism. In contrast, attacks on NATO appear to be a consistent element of Trump’s worldview. Olivia Wales, an assistant to the White House Press Secretary, told Politico that President Trump has done far more for NATO than anyone else. She pointed to his success in securing an agreement to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP, the expansion of the US military presence in Greenland, and his efforts to put an end to Russian aggression in Ukraine. Wales emphasized that Trump maintains the view that NATO allies should have come to his aid in a war with Iran. She added that the President will never accept the decline of the West and will continue to defend American interests—both at home and abroad—without making any compromises.It is expected that the Democrats will win a majority in the House of Representatives in the midterm elections and could potentially shift the balance of power in the Senate; meanwhile, President Trump’s approval ratings have fallen to an all-time low.Concerns among officials highlight the growing transatlantic tension, which has intensified following the US’s temporary suspension of Starlink services for Ukrainians, as well as Trump’s attempts to curry favor with Russian dictator Vladimir Putin just weeks before the elections. An intensification of criticism from the American side could deal a further blow to NATO, especially given that Russia is stepping up its sabotage campaigns and hybrid warfare in Europe. One NATO diplomat remarked that Trump could become very angry, and if that happens, his tone is likely to turn very sharp.At the heart of these concerns is a reassessment of the deployment of US forces in Europe, which is expected in December. If Trump finds himself unable to influence domestic legislation, he might seek to significantly increase the number of troops withdrawn from Europe—a move intended to energize his MAGA movement.Oana Lungescu, a former NATO official and associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI)—a British think tank—suggested that Trump might also choose to link the American military presence in Europe to a US-proposed peace plan for Ukraine. She noted the risk that all these issues—the review of US force levels, Ukraine, and the European security architecture—could, to some extent, be perceived as part of a broader deal with Putin, creating a highly dangerous situation for Europe.Trump has also indicated that he might reduce U.S. contributions to the alliance’s funding, curtail NATO-led arms procurement schemes for Ukraine, and potentially strengthen ties with Russia. A significant Republican defeat in the midterm elections could lead to major changes at the Pentagon, which in turn would affect plans currently being developed within the institution. US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth has become highly unpopular in Congress, largely due to his refusal to provide regular budgetary and operational reports. This has fueled speculation that Hegseth could lose his position following a Republican electoral defeat—partly because a Democrat-led Congress might launch investigations into the dismissal of generals and admirals without valid cause.If Hegseth remains in office, the Pentagon could experience a transitional period, which might result in the decision regarding the withdrawal of US troops from Europe being delayed by several months.
Trump could pose a threat to NATO if Republicans loses midterm
