The split in the right-wing conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party is a development that the centrist and pro-European government of Donald Tusk has welcomed, but it is unclear whether it will improve the current prime minister’s chances in the election, writes Politico.
In the “Politico” “Poll of Polls” survey, Tusk’s Civic Coalition party is in the lead, with 32% of voters’ support, while PiS is supported by 21% of Polish voters. True, the survey results do not show the full picture of the electoral dynamics. All right-wing parties together could form a majority, but only if they can agree on a coalition after the elections scheduled for next year. Meanwhile, three of Tusk’s four coalition partners could not cross the 5% barrier needed to enter parliament.
Renata Mieńkowska-Norkiene, a political scientist at the University of Warsaw, said Tusk’s chances of winning the election were far from clear. At the same time, the departure of former Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki from PiS has complicated the balance of power on the right. The reins of power were in PiS’s hands from 2015 to 2023, but in July Morawiecki left the party, taking 40 other MPs with him.
The differences between Morawiecki and PiS founder and leader Jarosław Kaczyński had taken on acrimonious tones. Morawiecki has criticized his own government’s decisions on pandemic-time restrictions and efforts to tighten abortion laws. The abortion issue in particular has sparked widespread protests, and support for the party has plummeted. Morawiecki said in a popular YouTube show in Poland, Rymanowski Live, that he himself is against abortion, but believes that tightening the law would lead to a ratings disaster, and he was unfortunately right.
Now the former prime minister is trying to build a more moderate, center-right party
focused on promoting economic growth. He said that Poland today does not need to descend to ideological disputes. At the same time, Morawiecki ruled out the possibility of forming a coalition with Tusk.
Kaczyński responded by questioning both Morawiecki’s loyalty and common sense. He said that Morawiecki’s latest statements clearly show that the enemy is not Tusk, but Kaczyński and PiS, and the former prime minister is not quite in his right mind. On the 7th of August, Kaczyński added insult to injury by denouncing on the X attacks based on lies, manipulation and innuendo, carried out by people who once pretended to want to be part of PiS, but have now split from the party.
Meanwhile, Tusk said he was happy to watch what was happening.
Although Tusk’s party and PiS have alternated in power for more than two decades, the current political landscape is more complex. On the far right, two parties are fighting for voter support – the libertarian Confederation (14% support) and the anti-Semitic extremist Confederation of the Polish Crown (11%). Both parties are fighting among themselves, and also with PiS.
Political experts have warned that Tusk should not count on the fact that the split within PiS will benefit him.
Mjenkowski-Norkiene said that Kaczyński’s and Morawiecki’s parties could attract a wider range of voters separately than if they were a single party, while Tusk’s chances are based on the electoral performance of the coalition’s weaker parties. She added that Morawiecki’s party could attract the most conservative voters of these parties.
Anna Siewierska-Chmaj, a political scientist at the University of Rzeszów, said that Tusk’s coalition should not rely solely on its opponents devouring themselves, and should instead spend the summer holidays changing its political message. Many voters are fed up with the government’s lack of results (and it doesn’t matter that this is partly due to the vetoes of many laws by Polish President Karol Nawrocki, who supports PiS). The scientist said that the previous “us against PiS” strategy will no longer work.
Read also: Poland to ask US to extradite former Justice Minister