The victory of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) in the state of Saxony-Anhalt marks both a setback for Chancellor Friedrich Merz and a warning to European leaders grappling with slow growth and a loss of trust in the major parties, Reuters reports.
The AfD, which narrowly missed a majority in the 6th of September election, has become the face of the opposition. Thorsten Frei, leader of Merz’s Christian Democrats (CUD) in the Bundestag, called it a national watershed. In an increasingly polarized political system, Merz, whose popularity has fallen dramatically, has become a key target for voters’ dissatisfaction with the cost of living, pensions and economic insecurity. A poll by Infratest showed that 87% of voters were dissatisfied with Merck’s government. Another poll found that almost three-quarters of the population, including almost half of CUD voters, believe that Merck has ruined the party’s prospects.
In his first comments after the Saxony-Anhalt elections, Merck told the CUD executive council on September 7 that the results had shaken his party to its core, but he also ruled out the possibility of the CUD cooperating with the AfD.
The AfD has said that it sees the victory in Saxony-Anhalt as a first step towards victory in state elections scheduled for 2029. Meanwhile, at least for now, there are no signs that a rebellion against Merck is brewing within the CUD.
Although far-right parties in Europe have also held power before,
the AfD’s most major success so far send a serious signal to other countries that are due to hold elections
in the coming months. In France, polls show that the far-right National Alliance (RN) party has a strong chance of winning next year’s presidential election. French Finance Minister Roland Lescure said the results of the Saxony-Anhalt election were a very worrying signal. He added that they showed that the international wave of populism was a huge challenge.
Saxony-Anhalt is a mainly rural state with a population of around 2.1 million. After German reunification in 1990, Saxony-Anhalt lost around half its population. The election result can partly be explained by the unhealed divide between western Germany and the former communist east. After reunification, industry in eastern Germany largely declined, but in the last 10 to 15 years there has been a recovery and steady growth. unemployment is not much higher than the national average, and the chemical industry has been revived and new sectors, including green energy, have been created.
Voters, however, have ignored warnings from business groups, economists and Merck that a vote for the anti-immigration AfD would risk attracting much-needed foreign investment and scare away the professionals the country needs.
Thorsten Faas, a political scientist at the Free University of Berlin, said
the AfD has become a highly visible political force that gets its message across more clearly and effectively than other parties.
He added that this is unlikely to change anytime soon, posing a challenge to the federal government’s efforts to paint a positive picture of the country and its future.
Merck, who faces a deep crisis in Germany’s core industries and wants to push through pension reforms that are particularly unpopular in eastern Germany, appears unlikely to have easy answers. Volkswagen AG announced restructuring plans in early September that will also see 50,000 job cuts worldwide and the closure of major plants in Germany, highlighting the bleak outlook for Europe’s largest economy.
The AfD has also found a strong foothold in the high cost of energy, caused by Russian aggression and this year’s war in Iran. The party has found a receptive ear for its argument that Berlin’s support for Ukraine has unnecessarily positioned Russia as an adversary, pushing up oil and gas prices.
When he took office in 2025, Merz promised serious reforms to revive the economy. However, there have been few visible results so far, and voters, especially in eastern Germany, have taken note.
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