The US peace treaty with Iran could become a political nightmare for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, as it destroys three cornerstones of his career and creates a new security dilemma, writes the British broadcaster BBC.
The question arises: how could a person who was considered a Washington whisperer, and who had real influence on US politicians, be sidelined? And how did it happen that a politician who had put the defeat of Iran at the center of Israeli security policy, ends the war with the Iranian regime possibly becoming even more resilient? And ultimately, how will the image he has created withstand the demands of Washington and Tehran shortly before the parliamentary elections that Israel must end its attacks on the Lebanese terrorist group Hezbollah?
Netanyahu’s options are not bright. They were succinctly expressed on the 15th of June by opposition leader Yair Lapid, who said that he could either go into a direct and devastating confrontation with the country’s most powerful ally, or submissively abandon Israel’s interests.
Donald Trump’s harsh assessment that Netanyahu was not thinking clearly when he ordered the attack on Beirut was enthusiastically picked up by the Israeli prime minister’s opponents and the media, which are already focused on the elections, which are due by the end of October.
Everything indicates that Netanyahu is also dealing with pressure from his own side,
especially in connection with Tehran’s demand that the ceasefire also apply to Israeli activities in Lebanon. Israel’s far-right Defense Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir wrote on social media on the 15th of June that Trump’s agreement with Iran was not binding on Israelis, and that Israel should not participate in a treaty that does not provide it with security. Ariel Kallner, a member of Netanyahu’s Likud party, told the BBC that Israel would continue to defend itself, but did not specify whether that meant Israel would continue to attack Lebanese territory. Kallner said Israel would do what was necessary and expected understanding from its allies.
Sima Shin, a former Mossad officer and expert on Iran, said it was hard to understand why the Americans had agreed to everything. By allowing Iran to decide what happens in Lebanon, the US was giving Tehran the opportunity to continue supporting Hezbollah and ensuring that the group was a significant political force in the region. She added that both Israeli security agencies and politicians were unhappy with this.
Amidst all the noise, Netanyahu on the evening of the 15th of June dismissed suggestions that he had failed. At a press conference in Jerusalem, he said that he had devoted most of his life to one goal: preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons. Netanyahu stressed that he would do what was necessary and would not limit himself to achieving his goal. At the same time, the politician acknowledged that there are issues on which he and Trump see things differently. This also applies to Israeli forces in Lebanon. Netanyahu said that the Americans know this and respect the Israeli commitment:
“We also insist on preserving our operational freedom – if we are attacked or threatened, we respond.”
Now Netanyahu faces a difficult decision on the next steps. Security has always been at the heart of Netanyahu’s campaign promises, but now it is a message that is becoming increasingly difficult to convey.
The prime minister’s aggressive approach to security issues has led to Israel occupying large areas of Gaza, Lebanon and Syria. While many Israelis consider this the right move and nothing is likely to change until the elections, the situation also places a huge strain on Israel’s military resources and reservists, and there is no clear diplomatic way out.
Repeated conflicts with Hezbollah and the Iranian regime have not helped get rid of Israel’s enemies; on the contrary, Tehran now has even harsher leaders in power, who are far less afraid of the United States and Israel, but have gained complete control of the Strait of Hormuz. Moreover, it now appears that Israel’s greatest enemy also has complete control over its main ally.
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