One month of war to cost Latvia about one billion euros

The costs of implementation of the National Defence Service (VAD) are not at all small. However, a month of war would cost Latvia close to one billion euros, said parliamentary secretary to the Ministry of Defence Baiba Bļodniece during a meeting of Saeima’s Comprehensive National Defence Subcommittee.
Despite the fact that all related legislative projects are still on the way to the parliament, on Tuesday, 20 September, there was the first official discussion of VAD in the Saeima.
The Ministry of Defence is aware the costs are very high. This is why it is proposed to introduce VAD gradually – over the course of several years. Latvia cannot afford to do nothing in the current geopolitical situation. Additionally, VAD is a matter of long-term security. «One month of war would cost us close to a billion euros,» added Bļodniece.

She reminded what the Ministry of Defence previously said – that adoption of VAD and state defence costs are to reach 3% of the country’s GDP.

This will require support from the 14th Saeima. The existing 2.5% of GDP allow for introduction of VAD at the expense of existing infrastructure. Nevertheless, the ministry is aware that later on it will be necessary to allocate 3% of GDP in order to afford a full-scale military service.
«We can see other countries rush to increase defence expenses. We hope the next parliament will be forward-looking and supportive. The price may be very high if we do nothing,» said Bļodniece.
Multiple ministries are involved in the implementation of VAD reform. Discussions in work groups will continue. During today’s meeting, however, officials of other sectors were able to present their own opinions on the matter, including the topic of civil service for youngsters who don’t want to serve in the army.
Ministry of the Interior’s Personnel Management and Administrative Department director Daiga Piebalga said the ministry is prepared to work on mechanisms in regards to implementation of a state civil service. The ministry is prepared to defend its interests and has ideas. However, it is too soon to talks about details and chosen solutions, because too much is still uncertain and there are many challenges ahead when it comes to civil service.
The ministry’s state secretary Ingūna Aire added that one of the biggest risks with the implementation of VAD would be the difficulty with filling spots in the soon-to-be police, fire fighters and border guard colleges, since the majority of healthy youngsters could be conscripted to serve in the army.
Ministry of Welfare social services and disabilities policy department’s director Aldis Dūdiņš said that there are many uncertainties surrounding the state civil service. Nevertheless, he believes it will be possible to resolve problems if all ministries work together.
For example, social care centres will need people to train conscripted youngsters and supervise them. «Let’s be honest – there will be issues with discipline. Things will not go smoothly. I can already see existing employees will need ‘more motivation’ to deal with additional responsibilities,» added Dūdiņš.
The Ministry of Welfare believes that health requirements will need to be equal for VAD and civil service conscripts. The topic of accommodation options remains open as well. For example, if a youngster from Zilupe is conscripted to perform duties in Riga.
Dūdiņš reported that he has already surveyed the situation at state social case centres that specialise with people suffering from mental disorders. Riga municipality has provided information about employment opportunities within its territory.
By the end of the year the Ministry of Defence plans to submit accurate estimates for the costs of VAD. The ministry suggests allocating up to 3% of GDP to cover defence costs, including implementation of VAD and its maintenance by 2027. The planned funding for VAD will be EUR 87.413 million in 2023, EUR 122.534 million in 2024, EUR 139.330 million in 2025, EUR 163.879 million in 2026, and EUR 178.973 million in 2027.
On Tuesday the government passed the VAD legislative draft and other accompanying law amendments.