Handing the Transport Ministry to New Unity (JV) looks almost like a punishment, political analyst Juris Rozenvalds told the LETA news agency.
In his view, under the currently proposed distribution of ministries, the undeniable biggest loser is New Unity.
“Even purely arithmetically — the number of ministerial portfolios they control has been cut in half,” Rozenvalds said.
At the same time, assigning the Transport Ministry to JV appears almost like a sanction against the political force itself.
“It looks something like this:
‘You failed to supervise things properly, now here — take responsibility for it!’”
the political analyst commented.
Rozenvalds noted that it is still unclear whom JV intends to nominate for the position of defense minister.
He said he has certain doubts regarding Colonel Raivis Melnis, because Melnis potentially leaving military service for politics and later returning to the armed forces could create ambiguity in relations between the government and the military.
Rozenvalds also pointed out that questions arise over whether the Union of Greens and Farmers (ZZS) should really continue leading the Agriculture Ministry despite its clear interest in retaining the post.
The analyst believes ZZS adopted a rather unclear position during the events that unfolded
after former Agriculture Minister Armands Krauze was dismissed in connection with the so-called timber industry scandal.
Meanwhile, according to Rozenvalds, the National Alliance (NA) are clearly the biggest winners in the current ministry distribution.
If Jānis Dombrava is appointed interior minister, as has been reported in the media, Latvia could see more active use of restrictive measures against migrants at the state level, Rozenvalds suggested.
He believes the biggest difficulties during coalition negotiations likely involved New Unity.
Particularly because, based on the size of its parliamentary faction, the party could reasonably expect a larger number of ministerial portfolios.
However, according to Rozenvalds,
JV accepted the arrangement in order to demonstrate that it is acting in the interests of the state
and willing to compromise despite its losses.
Meanwhile, Sanda Liepiņa, director of the public policy center Providus, refrained from directly labeling any party as either a winner or loser under the proposed ministry distribution.
She noted that the very short timeframe given to Prime Minister-designate Andris Kulbergs of United List (AS) to form a government almost certainly affected which party ended up controlling which ministry.
Liepiņa described New Unity taking over the Transport and Defense ministries as, in a way, logical.
She recalled that outgoing Prime Minister Evika Siliņa had publicly hinted that she wanted as little involvement as possible from The Progressives in the government, particularly regarding the Defense Ministry.
“We can conclude that it is a fairly logical outcome that this ministry ends up under JV’s control,”
Liepiņa said.
She also described assigning the Finance Ministry to United List as logical, since the prime minister’s party traditionally also receives control of the Finance Ministry.
Meanwhile, the Foreign Ministry remaining under JV control — which meant the Justice Ministry went to AS — was the result of negotiated compromise, Liepiņa explained.
Regarding the Agriculture Ministry, however, Liepiņa described it as a matter of values.
“Is it appropriate at this moment to continue entrusting it to ZZS, whose leader is directly involved in the timber industry case?” she asked.
She added that this situation also demonstrates the gap between what a prime ministerial candidate may want and what can realistically be achieved in coalition negotiations.
Liepiņa further emphasized that with the Interior Ministry, Education and Science Ministry, and Culture Ministry falling under National Alliance control, significant policy shifts could emerge regarding migration and integration issues.
As previously reported,
the four parties attempting to form a new government under Kulbergs’ leadership have already divided areas of responsibility
among themselves, while the names of specific ministerial candidates are expected to be announced on Tuesday following a meeting with President Edgars Rinkēvičs.
Under the proposed arrangement, United List politicians in Kulbergs’ government would lead the Finance Ministry, the Justice Ministry, and the Ministry of Smart Administration and Regional Development — all ministries currently led by prominent New Unity politicians.
The National Alliance would control the Education and Science Ministry, the Culture Ministry, the Interior Ministry, and the Climate and Energy Ministry.
ZZS would largely retain its existing positions, losing only the Climate and Energy Ministry. The alliance would keep the post of Speaker of the Saeima and lead the Economy, Welfare, and Agriculture ministries.
Meanwhile, New Unity would retain responsibility for foreign affairs and healthcare
while also taking over leadership of the Defense and Transport ministries — portfolios that have faced the greatest public criticism in recent months.
Kulbergs did not reveal whether Evika Siliņa could become defense minister, despite her recently expressed interest in the position.
Kulbergs is expected to announce the names of the ministerial candidates on Tuesday around midday.
A preliminary coalition agreement has already been signed, serving as the basis for further negotiations on the future government’s work.
Following the collapse of Siliņa’s government, President Edgars Rinkēvičs tasked Kulbergs with forming a new government, giving parties only limited time for negotiations. The coalition is expected to consist of United List, the National Alliance, the Union of Greens and Farmers, and New Unity.
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