Infectologist concerned decline of the spread of Covid-19 could cease after 15 November

There are concerns that after 15 November, when the lockdown is set to end in Latvia and safety measures are reduced, the drop with the spread of Covid-19 infection may stop, as suggested by P.Stradins Clinical University Hospital’s infectologist Uga Dumpis.
This is why the infectologist believes it is important to determine how much the infection might decline this week and the start of next week. «The lower the infection rate is when when we lift restrictions, the higher the possibility of living a long period of time without high infection rates,» explains Dumpis.
The expert believes a lot depends on how rapidly the vaccination rate slows down, because for safety it would be best to see a 10% increase in vaccination rates, preferably among seniors.
At the same time there is a possibility of regional differences surfacing with the epidemiological situation.
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The infectologist also has concerns about the situation at hospitals, where many Covid-19 patients continue undergoing treatment.
«We do not expect the number of patients to drop quickly, which creates a serious risk for public health due to restrictions in place for scheduled surgeries and outpatient care,» says the infectologist.
As previously reported, over the course of three weeks the cumulative Covid-19 infection index in Latvia has landed at about 800 units.
The last increase of infection rates started in Latvia at the end of summer, when at first the spread of the infection was slow and later on – in September – became fast and uncontrolled. While the daily number of Covid-19 infections in mid-September did not exceed 500, by the start of October the number of daily infections exceeded 1 000. The previous record was exceeded 17 October, when 3 206 simultaneous infections were reported.
With the growing number of new infection cases there was also an increase of the peak of the cumulative infection index – 1 801.2 cases per 100 000 residents on 30 October. However, infection rates have started to decline again. On Friday, 12 November, it dropped to 1 251.5 cases.
Although slowly, the number of hospitalised Covid-19 patients has also started to decline. The number has dropped 2.89% in the last 24 hours.
Considering this drop, on 9 November the Cabinet of Ministers passed a detailed plan for «life after lockdown».