In normal circumstances, the summer recess of the German parliament is a time when politicians can breathe a sigh of relief and journalists have to focus on news of escaped animals and unknown predators that turn out to be harmless, but this year the situation is different, writes Politico.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz would undoubtedly like the looming threat to his leadership to be overshadowed by stories of wild beasts, but right now the real fear is in the corridors of government in Berlin. Discontent has been building in Merz’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) for two weeks, sparked by the decision of a high-ranking party member to become a parent through surrogacy.
No one is saying out loud that Merck should leave, but if the party performs poorly in the elections scheduled for September in three federal states, it will be difficult to contain the crisis.
So far, the dramatic events have had two stages. The first began on July 14, when the BILD newspaper reported that Jens Spahn, the leader of the conservative parliamentary group, and his husband had become parents using the services of a surrogate mother in the United States. The newspaper quoted Spahn as describing the feeling as difficult to describe. The situation was made controversial by the fact that surrogacy is prohibited in Germany, and both the CDU and Spahn have long opposed its legalization.
Merck’s position has weakened significantly since he took office in May 2025.
Support for the current chancellor is declining, while the right-wing radicals “Alternative Germany” (AfD) are confidently leading the polls.
The second act of the crisis was of Merck’s own making. It was supposed to be a new beginning. Merck’s old rival, Span, was forced to resign, and changes were soon to follow, but everything quickly went awry. On July 23, German Transport Minister Patrick Schneider learned that he would be dismissed from his post and immediately informed his office staff. The problem was that the candidate whom Merck had approached was not yet convinced that he would accept the position and was refusing the opportunity. Moreover, the Chancellor decided to do without explaining the situation, and on July 26, Schneider himself decided to end what he called the “disgraceful” situation and submitted his resignation.
Schneider was not the only one who was upset by what was happening. The outgoing State Secretary at the Ministry of Health, Tino Sorge, also complained publicly about the situation. He said he was taking the chancellor’s decision into account, and that the fact that the replacement was first announced to the party and the press, rather than in a private conversation with Sorge, was a matter of Merz’s style.
Sorge’s public criticism means that Merz’s authority is eroding.
For now, Germany’s conservative politicians are speaking out in public, and it is expected that this will remain the case until the September elections. Meanwhile, in private circles, talk of a change of chancellor is no longer taboo. An anonymous MP who previously supported Merz said that the question is no longer whether Merz will be replaced, but when and how.
The next act of the political show could begin on July 29, when the CDU must elect a successor to Span, and the meeting is expected to be tense. The party president will also appoint three new ministers, although it is unlikely that they will be sworn in before September, when parliament returns from recess. But after that, and after the elections, the next part of the political drama will begin.
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