El Niño—a natural meteorological phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean that raises temperatures worldwide—has been intensifying for several months and has already had a significant impact on the global climate, reports BBC.As predicted, several countries—including Indonesia, India, and the United States—are experiencing floods, droughts, and heatwaves. The World Meteorological Organization has reported that this record-strength El Niño will continue to intensify and persist at least through 2027.Indonesia, which typically experiences drier and hotter weather during El Niño years, is currently battling its most severe forest fires since 2015. Since January of this year, 895,657 hectares have burned—double the area affected last year, before the onset of this El Niño. The forest fires have forced the closure of schools, and there has been an increase in the number of people seeking medical attention. In Sumatra and Kalimantan, residents are struggling with toxic smoke from the fires, which has caused approximately 175,000 people to suffer from respiratory issues. More than 40,000 cases of health issues of varying severity have been recorded among young preschool-aged children.In the eastern Pacific, El Niño typically leads to increased hurricane activity. This season has already seen 22 storms and 12 hurricanes, 10 of which were major. This total already exceeds what is typically seen throughout an entire hurricane season, and the activity is expected to continue for at least another two months.El Niño raises ocean water temperatures and weakens upper-atmospheric winds, thereby facilitating the formation of powerful storms. One example is Hurricane Polo; fueled by very warm ocean waters, it intensified rapidly, reaching wind speeds of 79 meters per second. Polo was one of three hurricanes to strike the same region simultaneously—an occurrence that happened twice within a single month.In early September, energy generated by unusually high sea-surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific triggered three hurricanes at once: Lowell, Karina, and Marie. Prior to this, the last time three hurricanes were active simultaneously was in 2015. Meanwhile, the Atlantic hurricane season has been unusually quiet. The influence of El Niño has caused wind shear over the Atlantic, which prevents storms from forming. So far this season, only one hurricane—Isaias—has made landfall, affecting the Florida peninsula and Alabama. This is the latest date for the formation of a hurricane in the Atlantic since satellite observations began in the 1960s. Previously, the latest date was September 11 (in 2002 and 2013). On average, by this point in the season, 10 named storms, five hurricanes, and two major hurricanes would typically have formed in the Atlantic. This year, only eight tropical storms have been recorded.In India, weather conditions have been drier and warmer, with monsoon rainfall 13% below average. Although the India Meteorological Department considers this to be within the normal range, the average figure does not reflect variations in rainfall across the country. While rainfall in central India has been roughly in line with typical levels, the eastern and northeastern regions have experienced conditions 26% drier than usual—a situation classified as extreme dryness. In the southern states of India, weather conditions are 24% drier than the long-term average.Even in regions of India where total rainfall was close to average, the rain did not fall consistently—as is typical during the monsoon season—but instead alternated between prolonged dry spells and extreme downpours. This has had a corresponding impact on agriculture and crop yields.Admittedly, weather conditions in India are also influenced by other climatic phenomena; scientists believe that El Niño is not the sole cause of these adverse weather patterns.China and Japan are also feeling the effects of El Niño, with recent storms triggering widespread flooding and landslides. According to the Japan Meteorological Agency, ten tropical cyclones have formed in the western Pacific—the highest number in a single season since 1966. During El Niño events, cyclones typically form further away from Japan and China; however, this means they travel greater distances, absorbing more energy from the warming ocean surface and, consequently, becoming significantly more powerful.Scientists anticipate that more typhoons could form this year, potentially affecting Japan and eastern China.
fewer storms in the Atlantic, more in the Pacific
