One of the hottest issues this week is the plan by certain political forces to ban the transit of grain originating from Russia and Belarus through Latvia, despite the fact that the European Union has not sanctioned such cargo. Meanwhile, the industry warns that such a decision could have long-lasting negative consequences and could also put Latvia’s reputation as a stable and predictable transit corridor at risk. What would a grain transit ban actually mean for Latvia? BNN asked political scientist and co-owner of Mediju tilts Filips Rajevskis.
“Shutting everything down is the easiest thing to do. I will repeat what I said when there was talk about dismantling the railway tracks. If we close our ports and tear up the railway, then perhaps, just to make things even safer and ensure everything is destroyed, we should burn down the entire country. Then no one will really need it. We will all be able to feel safe because if there is scorched earth all around us, no one will come here,” the political scientist says sarcastically.
“The same applies here. Everything involves its own risks, concerns and situations that need to be dealt with intelligently, rather than politicising everything.”
“I tend to believe that sanctioned companies are not operating in Latvian ports. The companies operating in Latvian ports are international traders, and many of the major traders are US companies.”
The political scientist also stresses that it would be very interesting to name the specific major international companies involved in transporting this grain through Latvian ports. Knowing which companies are involved would most likely also reveal how much Latvia could have to pay for failing to meet its obligations.
“If contracts have already been signed, this business does not work like a small shop where you walk in and buy a carton of milk. These are long-term deals, and they certainly include penalties. So first we need to understand which companies are involved and who owns the grain. Then we can understand how much stopping grain transit would cost us. We can choose not to transport it, but we may also have to pay for terminating this business. These are risks that come at a cost.”
Filips Rajevskis explains that if the issue is being discussed so loudly at the political level, taxpayers have the right to know the cost of every decision.
“I am not saying that we should not stop it. I also believe that we should not support Russia or Russian exports. But we should not pointlessly end up in a situation where we are not helping Ukrainians while at the same time hurting ourselves.”
Asked by BNN about the possibility that unilateral decisions by Latvia could also affect grain shipments from Central Asia, including Kazakhstan, the political scientist urges looking at transit as a whole.
“We can see how successfully cargo volumes are growing at the Port of Klaipėda, while ours are chronically declining. So the question is: what are these cargoes of some cosmic origin that the Lithuanians are handling at the Port of Klaipėda? This question should not be underestimated.”
Filips Rajevskis stresses that it is also necessary to consider why all of this is happening.
“The Black Sea and the Caspian Sea are closed to grain. Yet Ukrainians are also exporting grain. So the question is whether all these decision-makers have agreed that Ukrainian grain should be transported through Latvia. I would be very pleased if there were deals with Ukrainians and we could help them in their fight by transporting and exporting their grain. That is business too.”
Asked how he assesses the initiative by the Progressives and other parties to ban grain transit through Latvia, and whether this rhetoric is linked to the election campaign, the political scientist is critical:
“If we are talking about all of this as pre-election rhetoric, I want to say that a campaign is being built on the back of the war. As cynical as it may sound, our politicians are campaigning on the war and people’s fear of war. And that is somewhat disturbing.”
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BNN IN FOCUS | “We need to know the cost of the decision” – Rajevskis warns of consequences of grain transit ban
