In the 2022 Saeima election, Sovereign Power failed to enter parliament after receiving 3.24% of the vote, while the Young Latvians alliance did not yet exist. Four years later, the alliance between the two political forces has become one of the phenomena of Latvia’s pre-election landscape.
The success of the decision to join forces was already demonstrated by Sovereign Power/Young Latvians (SV/J) in the Riga municipal election, where the alliance won eight seats. Shortly before the 15th Saeima election, it appears that this success could be repeated. That does not, however, mean that SV/J could enter government. It can be said with near certainty that, just as in Riga City Council, the alliance would find itself in opposition in parliament as well.
Fierce competition for the protest vote
A poll conducted by Latvijas Fakti in cooperation with Faktu logs showed support for the alliance at 6.3% in August and 5.9% in September. However, the 0.4 percentage-point decline does not yet provide grounds to conclude that SV/J is experiencing a sustained fall in popularity.
Rather, it suggests that competition for protest-minded and Russian-speaking voters is becoming increasingly intense. This segment is already crowded, while SV/J is simultaneously competing across several political territories: with Stability! for protest-minded and Russian-speaking voters; with Harmony Centre and the Latvian Russian Union (LKS) for the traditional ethnic-minority electorate; with Gobzems’ List for voters shaped by the Covid-era protests and more radical anti-establishment sentiment; and with Latvia First (LPV) for socially conservative voters opposed to the government’s course, as well as part of the Russian-speaking electorate.
One of the cornerstones of SV/J’s success is precisely its ability to bring together these different political groups and appeal to the broadest possible spectrum of protest voters.
This includes the “everything is bad” voter, part of the Russian-speaking electorate, the Covid-era protest audience,
socially conservative voters and those who disagree with Latvia’s current policies on Ukraine and defence.
Another factor is the 20% of respondents who remain undecided and the 12.9% who say they do not intend to vote. This leaves a relatively large pool of people whose dissatisfaction has not yet translated into support for a particular party – and this is the “pond” in which political forces can still fish for a sizeable catch.
SV/J’s election promises
SV/J’s official objectives include reviewing the terms of Latvia’s membership in supranational organisations, keeping strategic state-owned companies under state control and protecting traditional values.
Its election programme proposes a popularly elected president, reducing the Saeima to 50 MPs, downsizing the public administration, abolishing the State Defence Service, reallocating defence funding, assessing Latvia’s possible withdrawal from the World Health Organization, preserving the use of cash, opposing digital currency, and expanding the use of referendums and citizens’ opportunities to influence state decisions.
SV/J promises to set the minimum pension at no less than half the minimum wage, raise the state family allowance to one-quarter of the minimum wage for each child, increase the tax-free minimum to the level of the minimum wage and allow people to withdraw their second-pillar pension savings.
At the same time, the programme includes a range of tax cuts.
Voters are therefore being offered a highly attractive package: lower taxes combined with greater social support. A separate question is whether these promises are fiscally feasible at all.
The programme also proposes allowing private schools to teach in minority languages and giving schools the option of restoring Russian-language instruction. SV/J leader Jūlija Stepaņenko has also spoken in favour of simplifying the process by which non-citizens can obtain Latvian citizenship.
This is the “carrot” that may persuade a considerable number of voters to support SV/J. Pensioners may be drawn to the promise of a higher minimum pension; families to larger child benefits; entrepreneurs to lower taxes and less bureaucracy; Russian-speaking voters to proposals concerning the Russian language and citizenship for non-citizens; socially conservative voters to the emphasis on family values; opponents of Covid-era restrictions to scepticism towards the WHO and state institutions; opponents of the State Defence Service to the promise of abolishing compulsory service; and voters who disagree with Latvia’s current Ukraine policy to the proposal to stop financing military support for Ukraine.
Once again, however, it is worth remembering that election promises – regardless of which party makes them – should be viewed critically, including by asking whether a single political force would actually be able to implement them.
Party figures and reputational problems
Young Latvians was founded in 2023 by Rūdolfs Brēmanis, Edgars Dārznieks and Artūrs Klēbahs, former members of Aldis Gobzems’ For Each and Every party. Gobzems himself ran on the Young Latvians list in the 2024 European Parliament election.
Jūlija Stepaņenko was originally elected to the Saeima from the Harmony list. During the pandemic, she was among the MPs unable to participate in the work of the Saeima because of the Covid-19 certificate requirement and challenged the restriction before the Constitutional Court.
The Covid-sceptical political environment and active campaigning on social media may be among the factors behind Sovereign Power’s popularity.
The party itself, however, has a much longer history.
The Union – Heart of Latgale party, registered in 2005, was renamed Law. Responsibility. Order in 2019 and became Sovereign Power in July 2022. Jūlija Stepaņenko joined the party at that time and became chair of its board, taking over the position from her husband, Vjačeslavs Stepaņenko.
Jūlija Stepaņenko is the alliance’s central political figure and its candidate for prime minister. Her advantages include extensive parliamentary experience and very high name recognition. Her political biography, however, also shows movement between several political forces: Harmony, Honor to Serve Riga (GKR), Latvia First and, subsequently, Sovereign Power.
In 2022, Latvia First expelled Stepaņenko and Ļubova Švecova after they did not join the party’s condemnation of Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine.
An even more notable issue concerns the two gifts – cash and an apartment – worth a combined 419,598 euros that Jūlija Stepaņenko received from her father, Sergei Fedotov, who lives in Russia.
The Insider established that Fedotov owns 72.68% of Forma ZhBI and 73.45% of PLK Forma,
companies that have provided specific support to Russia’s military infrastructure.
If a candidate for prime minister has received very substantial material support from a close relative in Russia whose company has also supplied fortifications for the needs of the Russian army, questions inevitably arise about the nature of these financial ties, the origin of the money and the possibility of influence by a foreign state. It remains to be seen what Latvia’s security authorities will say about the matter.
Rūdolfs Brēmanis carries an even heavier burden in terms of political reputation. He has been charged in criminal proceedings over the alleged fraudulent acquisition of approximately 102,721 euros while working in Latvia’s diplomatic service in the United Arab Emirates. The case is currently being heard by Riga City Court.
Following the 2024 European Parliament election, a court also ordered him to delete claims circulated on social media alleging that the election results had been falsified.
Specifically, Brēmanis had posted videos on Facebook and TikTok in which he claimed that, “according to unofficial information, the Central Election Commission would most likely falsify the votes that had been cast for safekeeping.”
Does this mean that the scandals surrounding the party’s leaders will cause at least some SV/J supporters to turn away from the alliance? Probably not.
While such a history of conflicts may reduce trust in a protest party among one group of voters, another may interpret politicians’ clashes with state institutions as evidence that they stand outside the “system”.
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