BNN ANALYSES | Lithuania is getting ready for Day X, but former Army chief raises questions

Linas Jegelevičius

With a substantial increase in the state’s defence budget, the deployment of a German brigade, the arrival of the German ammo producer Rheinmetall, the construction of “dragon’s teeth” along the border, defence bonds, and new drone capabilities, Lithuania is doing all it can to fortify its defences in preparation for Day X.

For comparison, in early 2022, Lithuania’s defence budget was approximately 1.05 billion euros, but it increased to 1.5 billion euros on the 17th of March 2022. In 2024, the budget rose to 2.3 billion euros, and it is projected to reach 3.5% of GDP.

However, the effort is not without challenges.

Earlier this week, following a meeting of the State Defence Council (VGT), the president’s chief security adviser announced that Lithuania will not be able to create an army division by 2030 under current conditions and available resources in the defence industry.

“Our national division will not reach full operational capability by 2030 unless conditions change,” said Kęstutis Budrys, President Gitanas Nausėda’s chief national security adviser, after the Council meeting, LRT, Lithuanian national broadcaster, reported.

If the status quo remains, Lithuania will only achieve this by 2036–2040, he said.

One sector requiring particular attention is air defence. Mindaugas Skritulskas, MP of the ruling Homeland Union-LCD, told BNN: “The issue is emphasised in many forums in Lithuania. Preparing society for Day X is also crucial. We need to align our investments in defence and deterrence with the rising geopolitical tensions.”

Notably, at least three NATO allies are expected to send air defence systems to Lithuania as part of rotational deployments next year, according to Defence Minister Laurynas Kasčiūnas on the 24th of October.

Kasčiūnas had previously indicated that NATO allies from Europe should deploy their capabilities in Lithuania, with the Netherlands being one of those nations.

Last year, NATO agreed on a rotational air defence model in the Baltic Sea region, aiming to have systems continuously rotating in the Baltic states. So far, however, only the Netherlands has deployed Patriot long-range systems to Lithuania, for a few weeks during summer exercises.

In July, NATO’s summit in Washington agreed that rotational air defence in the Baltic Sea region should fall under the alliance’s military leadership, rather than rely solely on individual member states.

Additionally, Lithuania’s negotiations with Rheinmetall could delay the construction of the German defence giant’s planned factory in Radviliškis by two to three months, according to Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė.

While specific reasons are not disclosed due to the sensitivity of the information, Finance Minister Gintare Skaistė has mentioned the “complexity of financial issues.”

Lithuania has downplayed a report by Der Spiegel, based on a leaked cable, stating that the deployment of the German brigade poses significant financial challenges for Vilnius.

“No doubt, the German brigade and the arrival of the Rheinmetall ammunition producer are cornerstones of our enhanced defence capabilities,” Arvydas Pocius, chairman of the parliamentary National Security and Defence Committee, told BNN.

He also emphasized that Lithuania’s defence budget has doubled since the start of the war in Ukraine.

In August, construction began on a new 170-hectare military campus. Nils Hilmer, state secretary at Germany’s Federal Ministry of Defence, remarked that the deployment of the German brigade in Lithuania is one of the largest projects undertaken by the German army. About 80% of the brigade will be stationed at the future military campus in Rūdninkai, with more than 4 000 German soldiers—equal to the population of the Lithuanian town of Šilalė. The brigade will consist of about 5 000 troops, and one-third of them are expected to arrive with their families.

The Lithuanian Defence Ministry estimates that investments in military and training infrastructure to host the German brigade could reach 800 million euros.

The brigade’s initial command element, comprising around 20 personnel, arrived in Lithuania in early April.

Moreover, the Lithuanian Defence Ministry has unveiled a UAV (unmanned aerial vehicle) development plan, which includes drone operator courses at the Military Academy, the establishment of a drone operator registry, and the promotion of local manufacturers. Drone development will also be supported through the paramilitary Riflemen’s Union and NGOs.

On the 10th of October, Lithuania launched its first one-year defence bond, offering a 2% annual interest rate. Available to both individuals and businesses until the 28th of October, the bonds will mature in 2025 and will support defence financing.

However, former Chief of Defence Valdas Tutkus, who served from 2004 to 2009, expressed doubts despite being generally supportive of the government’s efforts to bolster defence.

“There could be more transparency in the use of defence funds, but I understand the sensitivity of such information. Still, some components, like the ‘dragon’s teeth’ along the Kaliningrad border, are overly promoted,” V. Tutkus underscored to BNN.

Lithuania plans to spend 600 million euros on permanent counter-mobility measures, with most of the funding going toward landmines.

However, Tutkus and some top generals have questioned the figures and the planned measures.

“If Day X arrives, the aggressor, Russia, won’t repeat the mistake made in Ukraine, where 250 000 troops were sent against a country of over 50 million. Long-range missiles targeting our key infrastructure would limit the importance of these ‘dragon’s teeth,’” he noted.

Tutkus also remains sceptical of recent military simulations presented by Lithuanian journalist Edmundas Jakilaitis, which suggest that with an additional 10 billion euros in defence spending over the next four years, Lithuania could resist a Russian invasion for 10 days, buying time for NATO intervention.

While Minister of National Defence Laurynas Kasčiūnas welcomed the study, Tutkus questioned its optimistic assumptions.

“The study paints too rosy a picture, relying heavily on defence spending while overlooking many other critical factors,” V.Tutkus said, adding that the constant talk of an “imminent” Russian threat benefits defence industries and warmongers.

“Russia is heavily engaged in Ukraine. It would be absurd to think it could open a second front,” the former general added.

With additional borrowing, Lithuania’s military spending could rise to 3.5% of GDP next year, according to Kasčiūnas. Currently, the defence budget for 2024 is expected to be around 2.5 billion euros, or 3.03% of GDP.