Linas Jegelevičius
Who – America or Ukraine – should Lithuania support in ending the Russia-led war in Ukraine without a bad outcome for Lithuania? This is the conundrum that many Lithuanian politicians and analysts are trying to solve. For now, however, Lithuania’s support for Ukraine seems unwavering. Nevertheless, calls to learn to live peacefully near Russia, the country’s longest-standing nemesis, which has caused much misery, are emerging.
Stasys Jakeliūnas, a Lithuanian MEP representing the Lithuanian Farmers and Greens Union, stated in his Facebook post that the greatest threat to Lithuania is not Russia, but “fools, cowards, and scoundrels.”
“Three years of war in Ukraine (and before that, the Covid-19 crisis) have demonstrated that the greatest threat comes from fools, cowards, and scoundrels in our country’s politics and public discourse. Some do not understand or care about what is really happening and why. Others know or suspect the truth but remain silent out of fear. A third group spreads fear, hatred, and propaganda, profiting from the escalation of threats. Are we going to continue living this way?” he said in his post.
However, the majority still disagrees.
Audrius Butkevičius, the first defence minister of post-1990 independent Lithuania, told BNN that the situation that has emerged following U.S. President Donald Trump’s proposals aiming to resolve the plight in Ukraine and his Russia-friendly rhetoric is quite alarming for Baltic security.
“In fact, for the first time in nearly 35 years, since the restoration of our independence, we find ourselves in a precarious security situation again,” A. Butkevičius said.
He believes that much depends on the Baltics and Lithuania in bolstering the security situation in this new context.
“We still can control many things, and we have developed very strong security and military partnerships, which is key now,” he added.
Regarding the question of whom – America or Ukraine – Lithuania ought to support, the former defence minister reasoned that Lithuania must stand by Ukraine – unquestionably.
“The emphasis that our own security is pegged on the situation in Ukraine remains very actual,” A. Butkevičius said.
Agreeing, Lauras Bielinis, a political science professor at Vytautas Magnus University, reasoned to BNN that the changes in the U.S. policies were inevitable and are caused by technological advancement and cultural shifts among other things.
“What we need to do is to comprehend what happened, adapt ourselves to the new situation and live it through,” L. Bielinis emphasized.
He believes that Lithuania has to “unequivocally” side with Ukraine until the very end.
“We need to continue supporting it. America has to be with Europe and us too, not us with it – consistently and responsibly. What we are hearing from America now is deleterious to our interests, and, I am convinced, to America’s long-term interests as well,” the analyst said.
“Like everything in politics, changes are temporary. I am certain that, sooner or later, the American society and the top decision-makers will sober up and we will see a normalization of our transatlantic ties,” L. Bielinis added.
As a reminder, President Donald Trump has initiated direct talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin to seek a resolution to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
The U.S. emphasizes that European nations should assume a more significant role in providing security guarantees to Ukraine.
A proposed economic deal involves granting the U.S. access to Ukraine’s rare earth minerals, which are vital for various technologies.
However, many in Lithuania take a jaundiced view of the economic deal with Ukraine.
Linas Kojala, Director at the Vilnius-based Geopolitics and Security Studies Centre, said in his Facebook post that the U.S. does not commit to contributing any specific amount to the Ukraine reconstruction fund.
“There are no specific U.S. security commitments, which Kyiv had sought. However, their significance is largely symbolic; it is difficult to argue that U.S. security commitments would be more credible simply because they were included in a commercial fund agreement. Many important and complex questions remain unanswered until additional, detailed agreements on the fund’s operation are reached,” L. Kojala said.
Trump will likely present this as the best deal in world history, and for much of his audience, that messaging will be sufficient, the analyst emphasizes.
These proposals represent a strategic shift in U.S. foreign policy, aiming to balance support for Ukraine with broader geopolitical considerations and domestic interests.
The Baltic states, including Lithuania, have expressed significant concerns regarding U.S. Trump’s approach to resolving the Ukraine conflict.
Their apprehensions center on several key issues.
Trump’s direct talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin, notably excluding Ukraine and European allies, have particularly alarmed Baltic leaders. The three states fear that sidelining regional stakeholders could lead to agreements that compromise their security interests.
Statements from U.S. officials suggesting that restoring Ukraine’s pre-2014 borders is “unrealistic” and downplaying Ukraine’s NATO membership prospects have also raised concerns.
It is feared that a premature ceasefire could allow Russia to regroup and pose renewed threats, not only to Ukraine but also to neighbouring NATO countries, including the Baltics. The Baltic states, which rely heavily on NATO and U.S. support for their defence, are concerned about a potential weakening of these security guarantees.
Most importantly, the Trump administration’s shift towards unilateral decision-making and rapprochement with Russia has strained traditional alliances.
Amid ongoing discussions about the U.S. commitment to defending Europe, Lithuanian Seimas Speaker Saulius Skvernelis believes there is a need to establish a defence alliance among Baltic Sea countries.
According to him, this organization should not compete with NATO, but Europe needs a Plan B.
“We cannot have any illusions. NATO, as a collective security guarantor, is an essential factor. But we cannot ignore the possibility that it might not function as expected. That is why we need to have a Plan B and even a Plan C,” Skvernelis told journalists in the Seimas earlier this week, Delfi.lt reported.
“Speaking of other plans, I believe that countries around the Baltic Sea should have a defensive alternative, without competing with NATO. If a situation arises where someone blocks or hesitates to intervene, a regional defence alliance would be crucial,” he added.
The politician also emphasized that, given the current geopolitical context, Europe needs a strong leader.
As a potential candidate, he mentioned Friedrich Merz, leader of Germany’s conservative party, who won the national elections.
“Today, Europe needs to find a leader who can demonstrate true leadership. What is happening in Europe is our responsibility. Unfortunately, we have not yet found someone who can unite our countries and propose concrete solutions. There are many meetings, dinners, and discussions, but no decisions. Maybe the next German Chancellor could be that leader who tells Europeans that they must take responsibility for their own affairs first and foremost,” Skvernelis stated, Delfi.lt reported.
Lithuanian Defence Minister Dovilė Šakalienė, speaking at The Yalta European Strategy Conference on the 25th of February, dismissed the notion of Europe developing independent military capabilities to replace NATO as “geopolitically unrealistic.”
“Even if our transatlantic family sometimes seems dysfunctional, divorce is not an option. We don’t have anything to replace the Americans with – and we don’t need to,” she stated.
During the panel discussion “Where is the War Headed?” Šakalienė stressed that Europe’s security remains closely tied to its alliance with the U.S. She highlighted that Europe’s ability to invest in defense, strengthen its defense industry, and collaborate with Ukraine will be key in providing effective support both now and in the future.
However, some tout Trump and his proposals on Ukraine.
For example, Dainius Kepenis, Lithuania’s former parliamentarian, told BNN that he is “all over the moon” seeing Trump in the White House again.
“He is bringing sanity and common sense to politics. He is going back to the pillars on which humanity has been built – a strong family, a strong community and a strong state. The thawing of U.S.-Russia relations will be good for all, and, to me, the time resembles the thawing initiated by the Soviet leaders, Nikita Khrushchev in the 1950s and 1960s and Mikhail Gorbachev in the late 1980s,” D. Kepenis underscored to BNN, adding that Lithuania needs to side with the U.S., not what he calls warmongers.