As long as Russia’s war in Ukraine continues, Russia does not have the military capabilities to open another front against NATO countries, and there are no signs that it is currently preparing for such an attack, said Jānis Sārts, Director of the NATO Strategic Communications Center of Excellence, in the LETA podcast ‘What was that all about?!’
“Russia is and will be a threat to us, but that does not mean right now,” Sārts said. He pointed out that a military attack on Russia must be able to carry it out, but it currently does not have such capabilities. NATO, in turn, has prepared its own defense plans.
Sārts emphasized that Russia’s military capabilities are currently limited by the war in Ukraine. “While the war in Ukraine is going on, Russia is not able to open another military front with NATO countries, and there are no signs that it is going to do so,” he said.
At the same time, this does not mean that the Baltic states are not under threat. The threat of hybrid attacks has always existed, but it is not unique to the Baltics – similar threats also exist for Germany and France.
The situation could change if the war in Ukraine were stopped and Russia gained time to restore its military capabilities.
Sārts pointed out that Russia would most likely continue to arm itself, but experts differ on how quickly it could restore its capabilities for a wider war.
Therefore, it is important to distinguish between an immediate military threat and a risk that could grow over several years. “It is one thing to throw all your resources at the enemy because in two weeks someone will attack you. It is another thing to put resources together with the idea that there is a specific period of time in which they must be maximized. These are two different decisions,” explained Sārts.
He also criticized emotional statements about a possible immediate Russian attack on the Baltic states. Such scaremongering is counterproductive, as it makes it difficult to have a serious conversation about what Latvia actually needs to prepare for.
“I like that we base our conversations on data and facts,” Sārts said, emphasizing that decisions about defense should be made by assessing the real situation, rather than maintaining a constant state of panic in society.
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