The joint Russian–Belarusian strategic-level military exercise Zapad-2025 poses a low threat to Latvia and NATO, yet both countries use the drills as a tool of strategic communication for domestic and foreign policy, according to an analytical report by the Latvian State Security Service (SAB).
The exercises will take place from the 12th to the 16th of September, mainly in Belarus, but military activities are also planned in Kaliningrad and the newly created Moscow and Leningrad military districts.
Officially, the goals of Zapad-2025 are to simulate joint defensive and offensive operations and to strengthen the cooperation of the Russian and Belarusian armed forces.
SAB explains that for domestic audiences, Vladimir Putin’s regime uses the exercises to send a clear message that despite the war in Ukraine, Russia is still able to develop and reinforce its military capabilities and respond to threats.
Such messaging resonates well in the Russian and Belarusian information space,
as it emphasizes regime stability, a reliable ally, and the defensive nature of the drills. At the same time, it provides fertile ground for accusations against the West of pursuing an aggressive foreign policy and worsening regional security. This fuels anti-Western sentiment in Russian society and justifies the regime’s aggressive policies, particularly the war in Ukraine, SAB notes.
Aware of the heightened international attention, Russia also projects similar messages abroad: that despite the war in Ukraine, it can maintain and expand its military presence on NATO’s borders.
To add weight, Russia and Belarus highlight the involvement of tactical nuclear weapons and showcase new military equipment. The primary target of these messages is Western countries, signaling Russia’s extensive military power, including nuclear capabilities, SAB concludes.
This year’s Zapad exercises also illustrate another aspect of strategic communication, especially from Belarus:
portraying both countries as responsible and pragmatic neighbors forced to respond to Western threats.
In May, Belarusian officials announced that the drills would be moved deeper into Belarusian territory, away from its western border, and scaled down – officially involving fewer than 13,000 participants. Belarus also invited international observers, including from the Baltic States, claiming that the move was intended to ease tensions in the region.
However, this “pragmatism” narrative was quickly turned against the Baltics and Poland, SAB notes. Belarusian officials argued that NATO (namely, the Baltic States and Poland) was using Zapad-2025 as a pretext for militarization, despite Belarus and Russia’s ostensible concessions by reducing troop numbers and moving the drills further from NATO’s borders.
SAB assesses that as the active phase of Zapad-2025 approaches, Russian and Belarusian rhetoric will likely intensify, along with information campaigns targeting Latvia and NATO. It is also highly likely that officials from both countries will amplify NATO messaging in order to dramatize it and use it in their own propaganda.
Overall, the direct military threat posed to Latvia and NATO is assessed as low – Russia’s military and political involvement in the drills is lower than in previous years, and its military resources remain focused on the war in Ukraine.
At the same time, SAB urges residents to remain vigilant and report suspicious border-area activity, such as disruptions in communications, to the authorities.
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