One of the main conclusions from the meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian dictator Vladimir Putin is that Moscow wants to freeze the war within the current front line, demanding the whole Donetsk in return, writes the BBC.
Russia currently controls about 70% of the region, including its capital. This was achieved by the aggressor state after more than a decade of military activity in the region, and Donetsk, together with Luhansk, is the epicenter of the conflict.
If Russia were to gain the entire region, it would mean that it has consolidated its ownership rights, even if they are not internationally recognized. Moscow would also be able to avoid further military losses. For Ukraine, returning the region would not only mean lost land and a new flow of refugees, but also a loss in the field of defense.
According to Reuters, Ukraine still controls about 6,600 square kilometers of Donetsk, and local officials say the area is now home to about a quarter of a million people. The area is part of Ukraine’s main industrial region, Donbass. Oxford University professor Marnie Howlett told Reuters that the area’s natural resources will be inaccessible for a long time because the land is covered in landmines.
“These lands have been completely destroyed, these cities completely flattened,”
Howlett said.
The US Institute for the Study of War (ISW) recently reported on a 50-kilometer-long defensive belt that runs through Donetsk. The report said that Ukraine has spent the past 11 years (since Russian forces entered Donbass) strengthening the defensive belt and building a significant defense industry and infrastructure. ISW has pointed out that the Russians moving towards Pokrovsk face obstacles that would take years to overcome.
Not only fortifications are important for Ukraine’s defense, but also the terrain of the area. Nick Reynolds, a research assistant at the UK’s Royal United Services Institute, noted that the terrain is quite suitable for defense, especially the Chasiv Yar Heights. He added, however, that the overall terrain of eastern Ukraine does not speak in favor of the Ukrainians. The city of Donetsk is located on the highlands, but further west it becomes lower, which is not entirely beneficial for defense. It is not only about moving equipment towards the mountain, but also about visibility and radio communications. Higher places have better radio communications, which is especially important for controlling drones. Reynolds said that Chasiv Yar (which the Russians have declared captured) is one of the last points of the highlands under Ukrainian control.
According to the researcher, satellite intelligence data is undoubtedly very important, but it is not as effective as direct observation of the situation on the ground.
The western part of Donetsk is only a small section of the approximately 1,100-kilometer front line,
but it is there that Russia is attacking most fiercely this summer. True, it does not matter at which point on the front line Moscow would currently concentrate its forces, the result would be similar and not at all more successful for the occupiers. Reynolds noted that the front line to the south, in the Zaporizhzhia region, is similar, and there too the Russians would mainly just try to get through solid defenses. The same is observed in the north, so it cannot be said that the Russians could find a free entrance somewhere.
Theoretically, in the event of a peace agreement, the Ukrainians could move their defense line westward. The terrain there would be more ungrateful, and the construction of fortifications would take a lot of time, even if civilian workers helped and there were no shootings. However, theory is not the same as practice, and Reynolds does not see Ukraine giving up Donetsk without a fight.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has said that Kyiv rejects any Russian proposals to return Donbas in exchange for a ceasefire, and has indicated that this would become a springboard for new Russian attacks.
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