If the war in Ukraine suddenly stopped, Russia would likely seek to deploy its large, battle-hardened army somewhere else, said Māris Andžāns, Director of the Geopolitical Research Center and Associate Professor at Rīga Stradiņš University, in an interview with Latvian Television’s “Rīta panorāma”.
According to Andžāns, Russia’s army may currently be stronger than it was before the war, with a large number of mobilized personnel and many soldiers returning to Russia from Ukraine with severe physical and mental injuries, including amputations and trauma. “What will Russia do with them? That is a big question. This could create internal social tensions, and Russia would need to find a way to utilize these soldiers.”
Asked whether this could mean that Russia might want to fight somewhere else, Andžāns said that such a scenario is possible. “In the best-case scenario, Russia could continue its operations in Africa, where it already has relatively strong positions. Russia might also strengthen its ambitions in Syria, from where it could cause trouble in other regions. So, it’s not necessarily that Russia will direct this army against us, but it’s clear that it brings both advantages and disadvantages,” said the foreign policy expert.
However, Andžāns believes that Russia is currently ready to continue the war in Ukraine, as it considers it is managing the situation well.
Putin, according to Andžāns, clearly does not want to agree to any ceasefire while Ukrainian forces remain on Russian territory.
The professor speculated that Ukraine may gradually leave Russian territory, as this has been a demand from the United States to facilitate an agreement. He also mentioned that the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant could still be on the negotiation table.
Asked if the cards of the negotiation partners have already been revealed, Andžāns answered negatively, explaining that the cards are revealed gradually through so-called “shuttle diplomacy,” where the mediator, in this case, the US, travels to both sides to see what cards each side holds and where compromises can be made.
Regarding which side would benefit more from a ceasefire in the current situation, Andžāns stated that it would benefit both sides. On the front lines, Ukraine is currently at a disadvantage, so from a military tactical perspective, it would be more advantageous for Russia to continue the war. However, it is important to consider that US President Donald Trump has expressed a willingness to increase pressure on Russia if it does not agree to a ceasefire.
As previously reported, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin expressed his willingness to agree to a 30-day ceasefire with Ukraine on Thursday but with conditions.
“We agree with the proposals to end hostilities, but this proposal must lead to long-term peace and address the root causes of the war,” Putin said.
Putin emphasized that Russia fundamentally supports a 30-day ceasefire but pointed to nuances, particularly the situation of the Ukrainian army in the Kursk region, which he described as being encircled. He stressed that there are many other nuances related to halting the conflict and its control, which need to be discussed in detail with the United States.
Trump later stated that Putin had made a very promising statement about the potential ceasefire in Ukraine but added that it is not complete.
Trump also stated, “I would be happy to meet with him or speak with him, but we need to finish this quickly.”