Tuesday, the 19th of November, marks 1 000 days since Russia invaded Ukraine, with weary soldiers fighting on many fronts, the country under frequent drone and missile attacks, and officials preparing for Donald Trump’s return to the White House in January, reports Reuters.
President Biden approved the use of US missiles against targets deeper in Russia, but experts warn that this may not be enough to change the course of the war and could be reversed by the incoming Trump administration.
Thousands of Ukrainians have died, more than six million are living as refugees abroad, four million are internally displaced and the population has fallen by a quarter since Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion by land, sea and air that triggered the biggest conflict in Europe since World War II.
By the 31st of August 2024, the UN Human Rights Observer Mission in Ukraine had documented at least 11 743 civilians killed and 24 614 wounded in Ukraine since the start of the Russian invasion. UN and Ukrainian officials say the actual figures are likely to be much higher, given the difficulties in verifying the number of dead and wounded, especially in areas such as the devastated port city of Mariupol, now in Russian hands.
Ukrainian prosecutors announced that 589 Ukrainian children had been killed by the 14th of November 2024.
According to UN estimates, the war in Ukraine has drastically increased mortality rates, reduced birth rates by a third and reduced the population by 10 million, or about a quarter.
The war, characterised by intense trench warfare and heavy artillery, has also caused huge military casualties, with estimates of hundreds of thousands of dead and wounded on both sides. While Russia is considered to have suffered greater losses, Ukraine faces greater problems with its armed forces due to its smaller population.
With the prospect of negotiations, Russia and Ukraine are stepping up their efforts to consolidate their positions on the battlefield. Russia, with the help of Iranian drones, North Korean artillery and 11 000 North Korean troops has massed 50 000 troops near the Kursk region, Kyiv has said, where Ukrainian forces have held a small area as a position of influence since August. Russian forces are consolidating eastwards at the fastest pace since 2022, while stepping up attacks in the north-east and south-east.
As winter sets in, Moscow on Sunday resumed its air assault on Ukraine’s energy grid, firing 120 missiles and 90 drones in the biggest air strike since August.
Ukraine’s economy, dependent on foreign aid, is still 78% of its pre-invasion size and the once huge steel and grain industries have been hit hard. The latest available assessment by the World Bank, the European Commission, the UN and the Ukrainian government estimates that by December 2023, direct war damage in Ukraine had reached 152 billion US dollars, with major impacts on housing, transport, energy and agriculture.
The cost of reconstruction and recovery is estimated at 486 billion US dollars – 2.8 times Ukraine’s nominal GDP in 2023.
Each day of fighting costs Kyiv around 140 million US dollars. Ukraine’s draft budget for 2025 allocates 26% of GDP or 2.2 trillion hryvnias (53.3 billion US dollars) to defence, with Western partners already providing more than 100 billion US dollars in financial assistance.
Russia has occupied around 20% of Ukraine’s territory, including almost all of the Donbas, the Azov Sea coast and territories captured in 2014. Intense fighting has devastated frontline cities such as Mariupol.
Last week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine must do everything possible to end the war next year through diplomacy but rejected a ceasefire without security guarantees.
Meanwhile, Putin is still demanding that Ukraine renounce its NATO ambitions and give up the four regions, which Kyiv considers unacceptable conditions.
After German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s first talks with Putin in two years on Friday, Zelenskyy noted that they reduced Russia’s isolation and opposed the “Minsk 3-style” negotiations, stressing the need for “real peace”.
Zelenskyy posted a video of clip of dramatic moments in the war, including his speech announcing the start of the invasion in which he said: “Don’t panic, we’re strong, we’re ready for everything, we’ll defeat (them) all.”
1000 days together1000 days of Ukraine🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/o3FMIdEKZi
— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) November 19, 2024