On the 19th of March, the United States announced it would ease sanctions on several Belarusian companies, including Agrorozkvit, Belaruskali, and its trading arm Belarusian Potash Company, following an agreement on the release of 250 prisoners held in Belarus. After this decision, Belarus could increase its exports of potassium chloride, although European Union restrictions and logistical challenges remain in place, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) reports.
Spring in the Northern Hemisphere is the most critical time of year for fertiliser use. This is when wheat, sugar beet, and rapeseed crops undergo crucial second or even third rounds of fertilisation. However, fertiliser shortages driven by rapidly rising costs could lead to food shortages in poorer regions of the world and higher food prices in developed countries.
Belarus accounts for around 15% of global fertiliser production, with potash-based fertilisers being the country’s main export product. In 2024 alone, they are estimated to have generated more than $1 billion in revenue.
Despite the growing global fertiliser crisis — exacerbated by the conflict involving Iran and the disruption of the Strait of Hormuz — the European Union at the end of February extended its economic sanctions against Belarus for another year.
While nitrogen-based fertilisers can still be imported, they are becoming increasingly expensive due to taxation.
Last year, the EU imposed additional duties of 40–45 euros per tonne on top of a 6.5% tariff on products from both Belarus and Russia. This summer, the levy will rise to 60 euros per tonne, next year to 80 euros, and by 2028 it is expected to reach 350 euros per tonne. Meanwhile, fertiliser production within Europe remains significantly more expensive due to stricter environmental regulations and the lack of cheap gas.
Fertiliser prices are also being affected by the conflict involving Iran and the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz. Approximately one-fifth of the world’s energy supply passes through this waterway. It also accounts for around 20–30% of global fertiliser exports, including about 20% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade — a key component in the production of synthetic fertilisers. In addition, roughly 50% of global sulphur shipments transit through the strait, an essential element in phosphate fertiliser production.
Since the start of the conflict, global fertiliser prices have increased by 25%,
and further sharp rises are expected. Higher global oil and gas prices will also affect Western farmers, as post-production costs — such as transport, refrigeration, and processing — are likely to surge.
As EU sanctions on potash remain in force, Belarus is unable to transport its product via the fastest and cheapest routes through Baltic ports, particularly Klaipėda in Lithuania. As a result, Belarus must continue shipping potash via Russian railways to Saint Petersburg, which takes longer and is more costly. These routes are already congested with Russian potash, which is given priority. Russia, the world’s second-largest producer, supplies around one-fifth of global exports and is seeking to capitalise on market opportunities created by disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
Read also: The hidden side of sanctions: fertilizer shortages threaten global food security