Six months since Russia invaded Ukraine, the West’s response to the crisis has remained strong and largely united – to the surprise of many, informs news agency CNN.
Trans–Atlantic alliance has managed reach agreements on financial support and the donation of weapons to Kyiv, agreements to stop using Russian energy as well as sanctions designed to hit President Vladimir Putin and his cronies.
However, as the crisis reaches its half–year anniversary, officials across Europe are worried that the consensus could fall apart.
European countries faces upcoming winter wth concern, because of the rising food prices, limited energy to heat homes and the real possibility of recession.
For the purposes of this article, CNN spoke with multiple Western officials and diplomats who spoke on the condition of anonymity.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who has captured the West’s imagination and put heat on countries to support his war effort, might find it harder to get the attention of his fellow European leaders as the conflict drags on.
«The challenge for Ukraine is the same as it was on day one: keeping the West on side as the costs of supporting Kyiv hit home–not just Putin’s gas and grain blackmail but also the cost of economic and humanitarian support,» says Keir Giles, a senior consulting fellow at think tank Chatham House.
«That may well be why Zelensky said he wanted the war over before Christmas, because the real issues will be getting the West to stick to its promises in the long run.»
The winter fuel crisis is something that European officials and diplomats are thinking about daily, with Russia accounting for about 55% of Europe’s total gas imports in 2021.
A senior European diplomat, referring to a deal struck between the EU member states to cut their use of Russian gas by 15% says that it will be difficult for EU to keep the promisse to cut off Russia when it comes to any profits from gas and other sources.
However, the agreement has been criticized for being voluntary, and officials fear that when push comes to shove, some EU countries simply won’t play their part.
«There is the blob of Western Europe that is protected by distance and could not be convinced that becoming dependent on Russian energy was a catastrophic self-inflicted vulnerability, and even now hopes for a return to ‘normality’ with Russia,» says Giles.
Multiple Western officials say they fear that at some point political leaders might decide the best thing is to broker for a peace deal in Ukraine.
Officials also fear that the Western strategy of arming the Ukrainians is becoming a short–term solution to a long–term problem: a war with no clear end point.
A NATO official tells CNN that at the beginning Russia did not expect Western response to be so harsh. Tactically the Kremlin got a lot wrong. It was politically quite easy to support Ukraine and donate weapons and cash.
«Over time, the types of weapons we are sending have got more complicated, as has the training required to use them effectively. The good news is, these arms are helping the Ukrainians hold out. The bad news is, the longer the war goes on, the shorter on supply these weapons will be, making them harder to give up,» the official adds.
On top of the economic and military costs affecting the generosity of the West, there is also serious concern that the world starts to experience war fatigue as the War stagnates.
NATO diplomat considers that in February, it was easy to join anti–Putin campaign, but it may become more difficult, when the war is in the boring strategic stage as there are fewer daily gains and losses and there are fewer photo opportunities.
Of course, this won’t be as straightforward as countries simply withdrawing their support. But it might involve countries changing the parameters of exactly what outcome they support.
Some Western European countries, most notably Germany and France, have said publicly that dialogue will have to exist between the West and Moscow.
French President Emmanuel Macron has repeatedly said that he believes at some point negotiations will need to take place between Russia and Ukraine, while Germany Chancellor Olaf Scholz has come under fire for mixed messaging on Russian gas and most recently on whether or not Europe should ban Russians from obtaining travel visas.
The next few months will be the hardest for European nations since the war began. Citizens will feel the cost–of–living increase across the continent. Some will have to make choices between heating their homes and eating. Accordingly it will be hard for political leaders to justify spending money and energy supporting a country far away, especially when some of their citizens may feel that they’ve been generous enough as it is.
Multiple Western officials told CNN of their concern that at some point, political leaders might decide the best thing is to talk about a peace deal and undercut the Ukrainian preferred end game, which is forcing Russian forces back to the previous borders.
Most officials acknowledge that no one has a clue on how this conflict ends. And while most would like to see Ukraine achieve its goals of standing up to Putin and forcing him out of their country, their true resolve has yet to be fully tested.
And the miserable truth is that should the time come, a negotiated peace involving Putin might not feel as much of a worry to countries that don’t share a frontier with Russia and, bluntly, don’t see Moscow as the sole cause of such an existential crisis.