A year of uncertainty awaits Ukraine, said the Director of the National Defence Academy’s Security and Strategic Research Centre Toms Rostoks in an interview to LETA.
This week marks three years since Russia started its full-scale war on Ukraine. US President Donald Trump has commenced communication with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin about peace talks. The rhetoric from US officials has become unclear and very surprising in recent months. There have also been opinions that US have betrayed Ukraine and have given in to Russia’s demands.
“Clearly, Ukraine can count on sympathy on the European side to strengthen Ukraine’s position, while the US approach could be far more instrumental, more transaction-based, where an agreement to end the war could be more important than an agreement that would be beneficial and also sustainable for Ukraine,” said Rostoks. “The US President may be more interested in a solution to the conflict that would allow him to declare that what he promised has been fulfilled, rather than in a solution that is as favourable as possible for Ukraine.”
Rostoks agrees that Trumps telephone conversation with Putin indicates that Russia is no longer internationally isolated.
However, the Latvian expert says it is unclear if this is the correct interpretation of ongoing processes.
“It is difficult to agree on ending a conflict without negotiations. Negotiations with Russia unavoidably mean contacts with Russia. His is what is happening between US and Russia now. It is somewhat unexpected that negotiations have commenced on such a high level – between presidents. But we can understand US as well. Trump had previously said he would try to end the war quickly. This is why there is this want to push the process forward very quickly,” said Rostoks.
He believes that Russia will remain largely in international isolation. However, negotiations require Russia to be involved. A face-to-face meeting between the two presidents will be possible only once the negotiations are close to completion.
When asked why such talks were not undertaken or succeeded by European leaders, Rostoks said there is a number of reasons for this. “If we look at Russia from a Russian perspective, it sees the US as an important player because the decisions made by the US would then be accepted by the Western political community.
It should be noted that Russia does not consider many European countries to be sovereign states at all,
although this is not so. However, it must be acknowledged that reaching an agreement within the EU group of countries on the opening of negotiations could be difficult, so Russia’s primary interest is to talk to the US. Moreover, if the US stopped providing military assistance to Ukraine, this would be a huge problem for Ukraine, so the US is in the spotlight of Russia.” For the West, waiting was necessary in order to understand the position of the US, said Rostoks.
“I believe the problem on Europe’s side is not as big. It is clearly stated that Ukraine can count on solid support, but the unknown was what the US involvement would be,” the expert said, “looking back, the US position is not unexpected, but it was important to hear it in different formats. […] Although the US position has become clearer, it is still in the making. The US position will also depend to some extent on Ukraine, namely, how Ukraine will adopt the US position, what will be the position of Russia and also European countries. This is a small part of a longer process that is likely to continue throughout the year.”
According to Rostoks, US believe the war needs to end, because its current progress is not going in Ukraine’s favour. Therefore, the territories occupied by Russia are not recoverable at least in the near future, and Ukraine’s membership in NATO will not take place in the foreseeable future.
“It was known in advance, but the US have finally said it loud and clear,” said Rostoks. “The big unknown is how Russia’s position in the negotiations could and will change at all. It would be detrimental to Ukraine if Russia started claiming more territories in Ukraine, would want to disarm Ukraine and ensure that there are no NATO troops in Ukraine. If Russia succeeds in accomplishing its objectives, then it could be argued that the outcome of the negotiations has been unfavourable for Ukraine.”