Ukraine enters its fourth year of full-scale war with Russia on Monday, the 24th of February, without confidence that it can rely on its staunchest ally, the US, as its weary troops struggle to hold their ground against the enemy, writes Reuters and BBC.
Donald Trump last week slammed Volodymyr Zelenskyy as an unpopular “dictator” who needs to reach a peace deal quickly or lose his country, while the Ukrainian leader said the US president lives in a “disinformation bubble”.
In addition to the war of words, US officials last week in Saudi Arabia started direct talks with Russia, excluding the Kyiv and Europe, in a surprising change of policy on the war.
Washington has made it clear that it will not send troops as a security guarantee, which is what Kyiv wants, in the event of any peace agreement, thus placing the burden on the European powers, which are likely to be left without US support.
In a diplomatic note sent on Sunday and seen by Reuters, the US will also urge the UN General Assembly on Monday to support its resolution “which focuses on one simple idea: ending the war”.
“Through this resolution, Member States can give real impetus to international peace and security, the maintenance of which is the primary objective of the United Nations,” the resolution says, calling on countries at Monday’s meeting to “vote against any other resolution or amendments tabled”.
The US text also deplores the loss of life in the “Russia-Ukraine conflict” and “calls for a swift end to the conflict and further encourages a lasting peace between Ukraine and Russia”, without referring to Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity within its internationally recognised borders since the start of the war, which the 193-member UN General Assembly has repeatedly backed.
The Ukrainian leader, who has called on Europe to create its own army while urging Washington to be pragmatic, has held more than a dozen phone calls since Friday, mainly with European leaders, to shore up support and determine the way forward.
Many European leaders, reeling from Trump’s first month in office, are expected to visit the Ukrainian capital to commemorate with Zelenskyy the bloodiest conflict in Europe since the Second World War.
Since Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine by land, sea and air, thousands of Ukrainians have died and more than six million are living as refugees abroad.
The military losses have been catastrophic, although they remain closely kept secrets. Public Western estimates, based on intelligence reports, vary widely, but most claim that hundreds of thousands of people have been killed or wounded on each side.
The tragedy has affected families in all corners of Ukraine, where military funerals are commonplace in both major cities and remote villages. People are tired of sleepless nights listening to air raid sirens.
Russia carried out its biggest drone attack on Ukraine, with 267 drones falling on Ukrainian cities the day before the three-year anniversary of the invasion.
Ukraine shot down 138 drones, while another 119 were blocked using electronic warfare, Zelenskyy said on Sunday. Russia also fired three ballistic missiles, causing damage in a total of five regions.
Ukrainian troops face a numerically stronger opponent on the frontline, while questions are being raised about the future of US military aid. It is unclear to what extent European allies would be able to fill the gap if US support were to be reduced or cut off.
Yevhen Kolosov, chief doctor at the army stabilisation point of the Ukrainian Spartan brigade fighting in the east, said soldiers were psychologically exhausted.
“They are fighting on, but really they (who are here) are exhausted from the first days, even more psychologically than physically, like the medics. It’s hard, but this is war, who said it would be easy?”
Pavlo Klimkin, Ukraine’s foreign minister from 2014 to 2019, said Zelenskyy should try to maintain strategic ties with Washington while strengthening relations with Europe and reaching out to countries such as China and India.
Klimkin said he believed that relations with Washington had not yet reached a crisis point, despite Trump’s outbursts.
“The tornado is not sustainable, it will pass, but it is very important not to feed it.”
He did not predict that a peace deal would be reached this year that would meet Ukraine’s ambitions for something just and lasting but suggested that there could be elements of a ceasefire agreement.
Oleksandr Merezhko, a lawmaker from Zelenskyy’s party who chairs the parliament’s foreign affairs committee, said that US contacts at all levels should be strengthened, including with the pro-Trump MAGA movement.
At the heart of the current relations is a deal under discussion that could open up Ukraine’s mineral wealth to the US, where Trump is seeking hundreds of billions of dollars to repay aid from Washington.
Zelensky said on Sunday that US aid has so far been in the form of grants, not loans. He said he would not agree to a security agreement which he said would be “paid for by generation after generation”.
Asked about a possible mineral deal, Zelenskyy said that “we are seeing progress”, adding that Ukrainian and US officials had been in contact. “We are ready to share”, he said, making clear that Washington must first ensure that Russian President Vladimir Putin “puts an end to this war”.
Zelenskyy refused to sign an initial draft agreement earlier this month, arguing that it was not in Ukraine’s interests and did not include the security guarantees he wanted.
Trump said on Friday that the deal was close to being finalised, although the details are still unclear.
It was previously reported that US negotiators pushing for a deal had raised the possibility of cutting off Ukraine’s access to Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite internet system, which has played a key role in Kyiv’s military operations.
“So, we just have to play the game right – on the one hand, not to give up our interests, but on the other hand, to support Trump,” said Merezhko.
Trump has also insisted that Ukraine should hold wartime elections, appearing to side with Russia, which has long recognised Zelenskyy as an illegitimate leader of the country.
“I was not offended, but a dictator would be,” Zelenskyy, who was democratically elected in May 2019, said of Trump’s “dictator” comment at a press conference on Sunday.
The Ukrainian leader’s mandate was due to expire last May, but no elections have been held since martial law was declared at the start of the invasion and prohibits elections.
“If you really need me to resign in order to achieve peace, I am ready. I can exchange it for NATO membership if the conditions are right.” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was quoted as saying on Sunday by the BBC.
It is unclear how Trump’s call for elections and verbal attacks on Zelenskyy will affect his trust ratings, which remain above 50% according to several Ukrainian polls.
Some residents of Kyiv have indicated that they support their leader.
“I think it’s all wrong – Trump has the same rating in America as Zelenskyy has in Ukraine,” said Oleksandr Babiuk, 55, who works in the service sector. “Although I didn’t vote for him, I supported him throughout martial law and will continue to do so.”