Having destroyed the Turkish economy and impoverished the middle class, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is now manipulating the judiciary and trying to drag the country into war, writes Politico.
Turkish presidential elections are planned for the 23rd of June, which is one of the most critical political votes this year. The outcome will determine whether the country, located at the crossroads of Europe, Asia, and the Middle East and home to 85 million people, will continue its downward slide towards authoritarian rule or choose a more liberal and accepting path.
For the first time since Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) came to power in 2002, there are visible signs that political change could take place. Annual inflation is over 80%, the value of the Turkish lira has fallen significantly against the dollar, and the government’s popularity has been severely tarnished.
According to polls, Erdoğan, whose leadership style has become increasingly authoritarian, is in serious political trouble, with the AKP receiving just 30% of the population’s support.
Erdoğan’s response has been typically brutal, both domestically and internationally.
Despite objections from Moscow and Washington, Erdoğan has announced plans to send tanks to Syria to drive out Kurdish forces. At the same time, the Turkish president is also threatening to strike Greece, even though both countries are members of NATO. The reason for the dispute is gas extraction, and the possible arming of Cyprus and the Aegean islands belonging to Greece. The fact that such an action is likely to be impossible due to the economic and political consequences does not stop Erdoğan from making loud statements.
Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Erdoğan has positioned himself as an irreplaceable negotiator between Moscow and Kyiv.
Erdoğan has also been seen helping Ukraine, including by selling drones, while maintaining trade and energy ties with Russia.
Meanwhile, back home in Turkey, the current president is using a less-than-independent judiciary to try to sink his most powerful rivals. For example, the mayor of Istanbul, Ekrem Imamoğlu, has been sentenced to two years in prison and banned from holding official positions for insulting officials. Imamoğlu belongs to a popular, secular center-left party and could be the unifying candidate from the opposition. The ruling is now contested, but Erdoğan could try to speed up the process to prevent his opponent from running.
In the 20 years that Erdoğan has been in power, he has gone from peaceful coexistence with his neighbors to open or thinly veiled conflict with Syria, Greece, Israel, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Armenia.
Unfortunately, it looks like the European Union will watch what is happening instead of actively getting involved in smoothing the situation in Turkey’s various problems. The bloc is Turkey’s largest trading partner but has lost influence in Ankara as Turkey’s EU accession process has stalled. On the other hand, Brussels regularly has to buy Turkey’s support to keep four million Syrian refugees in Turkey and prevent them from reaching Greece. The West would undoubtedly be happy to see Erdogan leave office, and is quietly hoping for a more moderate, more Western-oriented leadership.
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