Russia is not expected to change and cease its aggressive and hateful policy in the near or medium-term perspective. This means we have to be prepared that Moscow’s policy may last for decades instead of years, said Fredrik Löjdquist, director of the Stockholm Centre for Eastern European Studies (SCEEUS).
«It is clear that what we see now is not Ukraine’s crisis – it is Russia’s crisis. The most violent and prominent sign of this crisis is this Russian war on Ukraine. Russia itself is a systemic threat to the rules-based international system,» said Löjdquist.
He stressed that even if this war abruptly ended, this Russian crisis would not disappear on its own, because it is much larger than this war.
«For it to end, Russia needs a different government and different leaders. I do not see any realistic way this could happen in the near or medium-term future,» said the Swedish expert.
«We have to be prepared to oppose this long-term policy from Russia – not for months, but years or even decades.»
The Swedish expert also warns that changes often happen very quickly in history – «we are often unprepared for them, and they often happen in a manner we could not have expected».
Löjdquist notes that sooner or later the time will come when Vladimir Putin is no longer the president of Russia. He does say that it would not mean dealing with a government in Russia that would be less aggressive or more democratic, because Putin could be replaced by people from his circle, sharing the same view on the world and ideology. However, these people may also share the belief the war in Ukraine causes existential threats for Russia’s future, which is why it would be in Russia’s interest to end it.
«I don’t see Putin pulling back from Ukraine,» said the expert, adding that it would not mean the regime in Russia could become less totalitarian, authoritarian, more democratic or prepared to respect human rights.
Löjdquist stresses that since 24 February no one has done more for Ukraine’s nation, its unity and strengthening of the country’s statehood than Russia, which has managed to make Ukraine’s nation united regardless of the language they use to communicate with their relatives.
«Considering the massive military aggression we have observed since February, the way this war is waged – with torture and murder, deportations, child deportations – Ukrainians understand very well that they are defending not only their country, but are fighting for survival as well. They know what happens to people in occupied territories,» said the expert. He excluded the possibility of Ukrainians putting all this aside to reconcile with Russians.
Löjdquist said the main condition for Russia to become a normal country at some point, for the country to respect international law and its own obligations and live in line with principles of democracy and human rights is for politicians and residents to review their past and put it to rest. «They have a lot to do – starting with communist and Stalinist totalitarian past with the imperialist colonial nature of the Russian-led Soviet Union. But it needs to start with this war, which is based on [Russian President Vladimir] Putin’s claims that there is no Ukrainian nation – many international experts say this is a war of genocidal nature aimed specifically against the Ukrainian nation because they are Ukrainians,» said the expert.
He said this is why the international community needs to demand from Russia and certain citizens responsibility for war crimes, human right violations and all other illegalities committed in the war.
«It is vital for us to communicate with Russian residents also to request their responsibility. To explain to them why we consider them accountable for what they are doing, not for what they are. We are not against Russia or Russians just because they are Russians,» explained Löjdquist.
He also said Ukraine is the «engine of history» at the moment. History, according to him, develops under this country’s influence.
«If we look at more positive sides, Ukraine and Moldova are officially EU candidates. Georgia will gain this status if it completes multiple criteria, a list of 12 conditions. We are creating a bigger and more expansive Europe, and Ukraine will likely join it first,» he said.