It is likely Russia is preparing to sign a peace of sorts with Ukraine while also hoping to take some of the country’s territories that have been torn by war in the ongoing conflict, said NATO Strategic Communications Centre of Excellence Stratcom chief Jānis Sārts in an interview to TV3 programme 900 seconds.
He admitted that the war in Ukraine is in a state of stagnation – Russia’s offensive has lost its fire on a strategic level and moment is close when Ukraine may take over the initiative in many sectors of the front.
According to Sārts, Russia is preparing to a possible moment when peace talks could restart. «As far as I see, their [Russians] plan is to secure maximal control over Luhansk and Donetsk regions, as well as at least a portion of Kherson to then integrate these territories into the Russian Federation,» said the expert.
He mentioned this may be why Russia has intensified the military operation in Donbas.
«This is why they [Russians] want to try to take as much territory as possible. In this case, Donbas is the region that is not yet under their complete control.»
When asked to comment signals coming from some western leaders that it may be for the best for Ukraine to give Russia certain territories, such as Donbas, to let the rest of Ukraine live in peace, Sārts said ‘such voices’ have become stronger lately. However, the decision is for Ukraine to make, even though survey data indicates Ukraine is not prepared for such a scenario.
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Additionally, Sārts stressed that the west has attempted such a peace policy a couple of times in the past, but everything ended up with Russia returning to the war path. With that, Sārts indirectly suggested that Ukraine shouldn’t agree to such compromises.
As previously reported, Tuesday marked three months since the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.