In 2024, 16 terrorist attacks took place in Europe, and in the future terrorists may increasingly use unmanned aerial vehicles, Latvia’s State Security Service (VDD) assesses in its 2025 annual report.
The VDD notes that all terrorist attacks carried out in Europe last year were small-scale assaults with a relatively limited number of casualties. Twelve of the 16 attacks were committed by individuals influenced by Islamist terrorist propaganda, while four attacks were carried out by followers of other violence-justifying ideologies.
In addition, European security services managed to prevent 22 planned attacks at various stages of preparation—15 by Islamist extremists and seven by supporters of other violent ideologies. The similar number of executed and thwarted attacks in recent years clearly demonstrates that Europe continues to face a persistent terrorist threat.
Last year, terrorists continued to rely on simple methods requiring little prior preparation. In 12 of the 16 attacks, sharp objects were used. In three cases, attackers drove vehicles into crowds—one of these incidents also involved the use of a knife. In one case, terrorists used homemade explosives.
No attacks involving firearms were carried out in Europe last year.
However, authorities in several European countries uncovered weapons and ammunition caches belonging to supporters of the terrorist organisation “Hamas,” as well as evidence of plans to use firearms in future attacks.
In one case in Belgium, investigators discovered that attackers had planned to use a drone to carry out an attack. According to the VDD, methods used in other regions of the world last year indicate that terrorists in Europe may increasingly plan to use unmanned aerial vehicles or remotely operated explosive devices.
Terrorism threat trends in Europe in 2024 remained similar to previous years. Terrorists primarily engaged in planning individual attacks, including with the aim of retaliating against Israel over developments in the Middle East. This trend is reflected in several foiled plots targeting facilities linked to Israel’s diplomatic corps or Jewish communities.
High terrorism threat levels are expected to persist in several European countries in 2026.
Conflicts in the Middle East and other geopolitical developments will continue to influence Europe’s security environment. Incidents targeting Jewish communities or Israel-related sites remain possible.
Islamist terrorists are expected to continue posing the most significant threat to European security, carrying out the majority of attacks. Right-wing and left-wing extremists are also likely to remain active in terrorist activities.
Mass gathering venues, law enforcement officers, and symbolic sites are expected to remain primary targets in 2026. The VDD warns that the growing diversity of threats and increased terrorist activity in other world regions could negatively affect the security situation in European countries, including Latvia.
The VDD forecasts that the terrorism threat level in Latvia will remain low this year.
The primary risk stems from the potential radicalisation of individuals influenced by extremist content on online platforms and possible involvement in violent activities. Another risk factor is the possible entry into Latvia of individuals linked to terrorism.
At the same time, given the regional security situation, the threat to high-risk targets in Latvia will remain elevated. There is a risk of targeted reconnaissance activities or provocations against such sites.
The VDD emphasises that Russia’s intelligence services will continue to show interest in conducting hostile actions against terrorism-risk and symbolic targets, aiming to intimidate society and undermine public support for Ukraine.
The VDD also reports that last year it identified an asylum seeker who had previously drawn the attention of foreign partner services over involvement in terrorist-related activities. The service possessed information about the individual’s contacts with representatives of Islamist terrorist groups.
In cooperation with the State Border Guard,
the asylum seeker was detained and placed in a detention centre for foreigners.
Based on the VDD’s recommendation, the Minister of the Interior included the individual on the list of foreigners banned from entering Latvia. The person was subsequently expelled, preventing a potential threat to national and public security.
Last year, the VDD also closely monitored the impact of the Middle East conflict on Latvia’s security situation, including developments within Muslim communities. During these activities, the service did not identify any public expressions justifying terrorism, calls to engage in violent activity, or support for terrorist organisations within Latvia.
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