The military exercises Zapad between Russia and Belarus have ended, but Poland does not lose vigilance, and has decided to close the border with Belarus for an indefinite period, thus also stopping the flow of goods between China and the European Union, writes Politico.
Warsaw made the decision to close the border with Belarus on the 12th of September, citing the security threat posed by the military exercises. However, now the Polish government has decided that the security threat remains even after the exercises end, indicating that movement across the border will be restored when it is considered completely safe.
The decision was made at a time when there is a tense atmosphere in the diplomatic sphere, after Russia sent at least 19 drones into Polish airspace. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump is pressuring the EU to impose secondary sanctions on China over its cooperation with Russia. The Polish government has said that security considerations are replacing trade considerations.
The border closure also halts rail freight from Belarus, which accounts for 3.7% of the EU’s total trade with China. This is particularly important for e-commerce giants Temu and Shein. The restrictions will also affect Polish companies. State-owned PKP Cargo said it could cope with minor delays, but a prolonged border closure could divert cargo south, through Kazakhstan to the Caspian and Black Seas, and on to southern Europe or Turkey.
All freight traffic is currently suspended, including time-sensitive goods
such as food and medicine. Artur Kalisiak, director of strategic projects at the Polish Transport and Logistics Association, said that as an alternative, roads through Latvia and Poland could be used, but this is much more expensive, and it is not known how long these borders will remain open.
The Belarusian opposition media outlet Belsat has already reported on attempts to create new supply chains in which trucks go to a terminal in Kaunas, Łódź or Duisburg, where the cargo is reloaded, and then the goods arrive in Belarus by rail from the Lithuanian side.
Polish government spokesman Adam Szłapka confirmed on the 17th of September that the border will be closed until further notice, and the government is still considering further action.
Since it is not known when the borders will open, entrepreneurs do not know whether they will receive compensation.
The Ministry of the Interior informed that the losses will be assessed as soon as it is known how long the border will be closed.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited Warsaw on the 15th of September to discuss the situation with his Polish counterpart Radosław Sikorski. Paweł Wroński, a spokesman for the Polish Foreign Ministry, said that the Chinese side had not made a request to immediately open the border, and that it had been made clear during the talks that security considerations were the most important at the moment.
Beijing had said before its minister’s visit to Warsaw that it would do everything it could to ensure safe and smooth rail freight movement, stressing that the China-Europe railway connection was a key project for China’s cooperation with Poland and Europe as a whole.
China is not the only player. Piotr Krawczyk, the former head of Poland’s Foreign Intelligence Service, said that the US should also be taken into account, as it is more than happy that the border is closed, even if only temporarily. The US is trying to get the EU to impose increased import tariffs on China for buying oil from Russia. Krawczyk added that the Americans are satisfied with the situation when the main land route for Chinese products is closed and will support the Polish government in not rushing to open the border.
Europe is also involved, but Krawczyk said he had not seen any reaction from either the European Commission or any of the bloc’s member states:
“So maybe Europe as well is not unhappy to see the main gateway blocked.”
He said that major German ports would be very happy if goods were redirected to them.
Konrad Popławski, an economist at the Warsaw Center for Eastern Studies, said that the amounts at stake for China were significant but not vital. The border closure would be more painful for China’s inland western provinces, which are far from ports. He also added that it is not about huge trade volumes, but rather a small stream that is important for specific industries. Rather, the question is whether the border closure will not be followed by a broader reaction.
The economist emphasized that while the volume flowing through the Polish-Belarusian border is significant, it is still not large enough to force Beijing to change its attitude towards Minsk or Moscow.
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