The lessons learned in the war in Ukraine will change the Russian armed forces. Restoration of war machines to their pre-war level will likely require up to ten years, as mentioned in Latvian National Security Concept (NDK) project based on analyses of state security institutions.
Latvian government supported the concept from the Ministry of the Interior during a meeting on Tuesday, the 19th of September. This concept has since been declassified.
The concept project mentions that Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine does, in fact, increase the military threat to Latvia.
Despite significant losses, Russia is and will remain the main source of threat for Latvia’s security and a threat to the Baltic Sea region.
Russia will learn from its mistakes and will execute focused measures to restore combat capabilities. Russia will respond to Finland and Sweden joining NATO with deployment of additional conventional forces in the Baltic Sea region. All this may be followed by more frequent and larger joint military exercises by Russia and Belarus in the western strategic area. Russia may try to compensate the loss of conventional forces in Ukraine with increased nuclear threats, as well as hybrid war elements, the concept mentions.
Russia will also create a negative and aggressive narrative against Baltic States to influence its residents.
Russia still uses a wide range of tools, including disinformation, to influence Baltic States’ policy.
Russia is prepared to use military force to achieve geopolitical goals. Although the conventional capabilities of Russian armed forces turned out to be “weaker than expected”, it has not discouraged Kremlin from continuing the war.
After losses and retreats Russia has not refused its initial goals, the country has changed its tactics and has adapted to a lengthy war. Russia is finding ways to compensate the loss of troops and equipment, the lack of technologies and munitions, while the Russian community remains apathetic and passive, motivating the Kremlin to continue the war, Latvian special services say.
Belarus has an important role in Russia’s war against Ukraine. The country’s authoritarian leader is trying to affirm himself as Russia’s most important strategic partner on the European continent. Russia used the territory in Belarus to concentrate forces for its main invasion direction in Ukraine before February 2022.
If need be, Russia may attempt to use Belarus for aggression against neighbouring countries.
Latvian special services note – although Russia’s war crimes in Ukraine affect the international community’s attitude towards the country, it does not seem they have caused any condemnation from the Russian society. It is the opposite, in fact. Russia’s official position and society’s attitude encourages crimes against civilians in occupied territories.
Internally, in Russia, expressions of public dissatisfaction are controlled to the maximum extent, which ensures the regime’s stability for the coming years. As the aggression against Ukraine continues and the message of “entire people’s war” is activated, the support for the existing regime in Russia may increase even more.
Despite the significant losses Russia’s army has suffered in Ukraine, the country’s military potential remains high. Russia has enough finances and military reserves to continue the war. Russia also has nuclear arms to continue confrontation with the west. This is why Moscow will continue threatening its neighbours. Right now all of Russia’s military resources are focused on winning the war in Ukraine. Once the war is over, it will definitely change.
It is expected that attempts to destabilise the situation in Baltic States using resources available to Russia will continue and even increase. If Russia manages to stabilise its positions, the country may attempt to acquire additional influence in a wider region, Baltic States included, in order to preserve and strengthen Russian language and cultural environment, various media supporting Russia’s position in Russian and other European languages. Russia will also continue using hybrid methods or military operations to spread its influence.
Lessons learned in the war will change Russia’s armed forces.
Selection of the most capable commanders, fight against corruption and other changes can increase the battle capabilities of Russian armed forces faster than new units or restoration of modern stores of arms.
Western technologies may be required to manufacture new military equipment in Russia. These technologies are under sanctions. However, Russia has proven its ability to systematically circumvent sanctions. It is possible that recovery of military equipment to its pre-war level may require up to ten years. Until then Russia will be able to make do with repaired equipment of an older generation, which is still available.
The previous National Security Concept was composed and approved in the Saeima in 2019. The concept is based on analysis of threats to national security from various state security institutions.
Following the approval of the National Security Concept it is necessary to develop a National Security Plan that will include specific state threat prevention and neutralisation measures. Similarly to previous times, the development of the National Security Plan will be managed and coordinated by the State Security Service.
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