In the medium to long term, it will become increasingly difficult for Russia to return to a peacetime economy – a dynamic that, in turn, creates domestic demand to maintain an aggressive foreign policy and continue military build-up, according to the threat assessment and annual review by the Military Intelligence and Security Service (MIDD).
MIDD notes that the depletion of reserves may threaten Russia’s ability to wage a prolonged high-intensity conflict within the next few years. At the same time, the service concludes that in the short term, Moscow is likely to be able to marshal available resources to finance the war in Ukraine in pursuit of the Kremlin’s strategic objectives in that country.
However, the service emphasizes that under current conditions, Russia lacks the military capability for another strategic-level ground operation.
According to MIDD, a large-scale military reform is underway in Russia, aiming to increase the size of its armed forces from one to one and a half million troops. The most significant changes are planned in the western strategic direction.
“It is likely that achieving the full goals of this reform will take several years, possibly a decade, but it is expected that the number of Russian troops near Latvia’s border will begin to grow as the intensity of combat in Ukraine decreases,” the report states.
MIDD emphasizes that it is impossible to determine the precise volume or level of capabilities the Russian armed forces would need to reach before the Kremlin would consider launching a new military aggression.
In its view, decision-making could be influenced by a range of situational and subjective factors, including the Russian military-political leadership’s perception of an adversary’s weakness and calculations that certain objectives can be achieved through military means.
“The invasion of Ukraine demonstrated that such Russian calculations can be inaccurate and overly optimistic,” the MIDD notes, assessing that Russia would likely consider attacking a NATO member only if it were convinced that other alliance members would not fulfill their obligations under Article 5 of the Washington Treaty and would not provide assistance. To encourage such a perception, Russia is deliberately trying to convince Western countries of its readiness to use nuclear weapons even in response to relatively low levels of external threat, the service adds.
MIDD also stresses that while the Kremlin is expected to continue issuing threats amid difficulties in the war against Ukraine, it is likely to refrain from the actual use of nuclear weapons.
The service highlights that a significant source of support for Russia is the supply of weapons and ammunition from North Korea and Iran. In addition, Russia’s military industry and armed forces receive critical support from China, which provides manufacturing equipment, microelectronics components, drone engines, and similar technologies.
MIDD acknowledges that the strategic partnership between Russia and China represents a major threat to Latvia, as it could provide Moscow with the diplomatic, economic, and military-technical support needed for confrontation with the West.
The threat to Latvia also stems from the policies pursued by Belarus, the experts emphasize. Minsk’s growing dependence on Moscow makes Belarus a potential accomplice in Russian aggression against neighboring countries, MIDD concludes.
Experts also note that Russia continues to employ informal armed formations both on the battlefield in Ukraine and to achieve specific objectives in other countries. The use of such forces has proven effective multiple times, both in Ukraine and elsewhere. MIDD emphasizes that, depending on the circumstances and necessity, these formations could once again play a significant role in advancing the Kremlin’s interests.
MIDD is a national security authority under the supervision of the Minister of Defence. It carries out military counterintelligence, intelligence, and other tasks assigned by the Law on National Security Authorities and other legal acts. Since 2002, the head of the service has been Indulis Krēķis.