People in Latvia should be ready for existing hybrid threats from Russia intensifying, as Diena was told by former director of the Constitution Protection Bureau Jānis Kažociņš.
He agrees with the conclusions made in the bureau’s report for 2023 – that Latvia needs to become more careful when it comes to Russia’s attempts to influence the country’s information space. Especially if the situation in Ukraine starts going bad for Russia. The country may try something in the Baltic region, because “we are vulnerable”, says the former SAB director, reminding that, from the Kremlin’s perspective, Latvia is the most important Baltic State because if this country can be controlled politically or through military means, Lithuania and Estonia end up in a much more complicated situation.
“This is why we have to be ready for the long-observed hybrid threats to escalate,” said Kažociņš. He said that in this case Latvia’s first line of defence will most likely be its interior affairs structures, and it is very bad that this year’s budget could not find sufficient funding for these needs.
In his interview to Diena, Kažociņš complimented SAB’s annual report. He said Russian President Vladimir Putin has broken the suggested public agreement with Russian society that states how it will not meddle in politics, but in exchange he will provide the country with a slow but positive development of prosperity every year.
According to the former SAB director, there could be a new mobilisation organised in Russia after presidential elections in March
and this could create a great deal of internal pressure in society and other aspects.
“The people are so oppressed that we are unlikely to see any uprising, and this is mentioned in SAB report, but they did correctly say that there are more and more discussions popping up among the Russian elite about the situation after Putin. Because they understand that Putin’s move in Ukraine was a terrible mistake from which they have no way back, and this leads to problems for Russia in a medium and long-term perspective. This is why they are starting to talk behind Putin’s back to find a way to keep their power and money,” claims Kažociņš.
According to him, the elite can benefit from a way by taking over foreign companies that leave the country and earning from the war economy, but these things are short-lived. The question is how well for how long the Russian elite will be able to maintain this state. This is a source of worry for Russian elites who have power and money.
“They are also worried about a possible split in interests, but there are those who believe Putin is not aggressive enough in Ukraine, and those who believe that if Russia continues at the same pace, there won’t be any future for the country. This is why it is necessary to end the war as quickly as possible and return to normal relations with the West,” Kažociņš said in his interview to Diena.
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