NATO is preparing for a possible attack from Russia on the alliance’s eastern flank, German Bild tabloid reports, referencing some secret document they were able to access.
The document of the German Ministry of Defence describes a possible scenario of a conflict between Russia and NATO. This conflict, according to this document, would reach its culmination in 2025.
The document also details the biggest NATO exercises since the end of the Cold War. They are planned to be organised in the Baltic region this year.
For security purposes, Bild did not reveal all the information regarding movement of NATO forces and the number of troops involved.
According to the scenario described in the secret document, Russia will perform another mobilisation in February 2024 and recruit 200 000 more men into service. This will be followed by another attack on the Ukrainian front.
With no sufficient aid from the West, Russians will defeat the Ukrainian army by June, according to the scenario.
In July Russians commence an attack on the West using cyber attacks and other hybrid war methods, with Baltic States the main target.
In response to ethnic clashes in Baltic States, Russia organises large-scale exercises in its territory and Belarus. The expected number of participating troops is 50 000, according to Bild.
The next stage of escalation is set to happen in October with the deployment of additional forces and medium-range missiles in Russian Kaliningrad Oblast.
In December a “border conflict” and “riots with many victims” are orchestrated in the Suwalki Gap.
The scenario detailed in the secret document suggests that with the US left leaderless after presidential elections in November, Russia will use the opportunity to organise an attack on NATO using the same scenario the country had used against Ukraine in 2014.
The scenario continues by suggesting that in January 2025, following a request from Baltic States and Poland, a NATO Council meeting will be called. During this meeting, NATO will report the growing threat coming from Russia.
In May 2025 NATO will decide in favour of deterrence activities and on “X day” the alliance will send 300 000 troops to the eastern flank to prevent a possible attack by Russia on Suwalki Gap from Kaliningrad and Belarus.
The scenario ends a month after X Day. However, the secret NATO military document referenced by Bild does not mention if the alliance succeeds in deterring Russia from an attack.
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