Two of the world’s leading meteorological agencies predict even more intense heatwaves and extreme weather events in the coming years.
According to a five-year forecast published by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the UK Met Office, there is an 80% chance that the global annual temperature record will be broken during this period. There is an even higher probability that the world will again exceed the global temperature rise threshold set a decade ago.
“A higher global average temperature might sound abstract, but in reality, it means a greater likelihood of extreme weather events—stronger hurricanes, heavier rainfall, droughts,” said Natalie Mahowald, a climate scientist at Cornell University, USA, who was not involved in the forecast but considers it credible. “In other words, higher average global temperatures mean more lives lost,” she added.
For the first time, there is a small but real possibility that by the end of this decade, the annual global average temperature could exceed the Paris Agreement’s target of limiting warming to 1.5°C, and may even surpass the 2°C threshold, the agencies warned.
There is an 86% chance that in at least one of the next five years, the 1.5°C global temperature increase limit will be exceeded,
and a 70% chance that the five-year average will surpass this threshold, according to the agencies’ calculations.
The forecast is based on over 200 separate projections using computer simulations conducted in ten scientific centers worldwide.
A decade ago, the same research teams estimated only about a 1% chance of breaching the critical 1.5°C threshold in a given year. That breach occurred last year.
This year, the 2°C threshold enters the equation, and there is a small possibility it could be exceeded—a prospect described as shocking by UK Met Office scientists.
“No one wants to experience that, but science is pointing us in that direction,” said UK Met Office scientist Leon Hermanson.
Although 2024 was 1.5°C warmer than the pre-industrial era, the Paris Agreement threshold applies to a 20-year average, so technically it has not yet been exceeded. Taking the past decade and forecasting the next into account, the current global average temperature is about 1.4°C above the 1850–1900 baseline period, estimates Chris Hewitt, Director of Climate Services at the WMO.
“The next five years are forecast to be, on average, more than 1.5°C warmer than the pre-industrial period, which means more people than ever will be exposed to intense heatwaves, resulting in more deaths and severe health impacts—unless populations are better protected from heat,” explained Richard Betts, head of climate impact research at the UK Met Office and professor at the University of Exeter. “We can also expect more devastating wildfires.”
Arctic ice, which is warming 3.5 times faster than the global average, will continue to melt, and sea levels are expected to rise more rapidly, warned Hewitt.
Global temperature rise has often been compared to an escalator ride, with the natural phenomenon El Niño—associated with higher sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean—causing temporary leaps up or down. But recently, after each El Niño “jump,” the global temperature does not fall much, if at all. “Record-high temperatures are quickly becoming the new normal,” said Rob Jackson, a climate scientist at Stanford University.